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Monitor Estacional

Widespread average to above-average precipitation will likely benefit upcoming cropping season

25 Enero 2019

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Se estima que seria al menos una fase peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
La manera de clasificación que utiliza FEWS NET es compatible con la CIF. Un análisisque es compatible con la CIF sigue los protocolos fundamentales de CIF pero nonecesariamente refleja el consenso de los socios nacionales en materia de seguridad alimentaria.
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

CIF 2.0 Fase de Insegurida d Alimentaria Aguda

Países presenciales:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3: Crisis
4: Emergencia
5: Hambruna
Países de monitoreo remoto:
1: Minimo
2: Acentuada
3+: Crisis o peor
Se estima que seria al menos una fase
peor sin ayuda humanitaria actual o programada
Para los países de Monitoreo Remoto, FEWS NET utiliza un contorno de color en el mapa CIF que representa la clasificación más alta de CIF en las áreas de preocupación.

Mensajes clave

  • Afghanistan is moving into the main part of the winter wet season, with average conditions across much of the country.  Close attention should be given over the next few months, during the critical part of the season.

  • Early season precipitation across the higher elevations in the north and northeast has been above average, leading to strong early season precipitation anomalies and above-average snowpack at higher elevations.

  • Repeated, mild below-average rainfall performance across central and southeastern parts of the country has built to deficits exceeding 25mm across the region for the season. 

  • Global climate conditions indicate an increased likelihood of above average precipitation and temperatures over the next few for much of the region. Above average temperatures could lead to an earlier than normal spring snowmelt runoff season.

UPDATE ON SEASONAL PROGRESS

Precipitation anomalies:

Northern and northeastern parts of Afghanistan continue to maintain the positive anomalies built up over the October-to-present monitoring period (Figure 1). This is due to near average precipitation over much of the country during December and early January.  While these positive anomalies indicate strong early season precipitation performance, the critical part of the season is upcoming, and these positive anomalies can be quickly reversed. 

Meanwhile, below average seasonal anomalies have emerged in south-central parts of the country. While relatively small in magnitude, these are the cumulative result of a number of moderately below-average pentads (Figure 3).  Zabul, and neighboring provinces should continue to be closely monitored to evaluate these deficits as the season moves into the primary growing season.

Snowpack and snow water storage:

The snowpack conditions closely mirror precipitation conditions, with generally above-average snow depth in the northern and northeastern highlands (Figure 2).  This is reflected in moderately above average conditions across all the basins in the north and northeastern highlands (Figure 4, shown with the snow water volume plot for the Indus basin).  The lower elevations of central Afghanistan have average to below average snow depth.  These patterns can be attributed to below average precipitation during the month of December, and more recent recovery from widespread precipitation in the northern two-thirds of the country in early to mid-January. 

Temperatures:

During December and early January, average to above-average temperatures persisted through much of Afghanistan (Figure 5).  There were a few exceptions in the northeastern and central highlands during the latter part of the month. We see generally above average temperature except for limited locations in the northeast during the latter two dekads. In the highlands the temperatures were still below freezing, meaning that melting of accumulated snow was limited, while warm temperatures hindered snow accumulation in the low to moderate elevation areas of Afghanistan.

Forecasts:

Early estimates for January 1-20, 2019 precipitation, which combine GEFS forecasts and CHIRPS Preliminary data, indicate anomalously wet conditions across the country that would add to existing surpluses in northern and northeastern areas and ameliorate season-to-date deficits in southern areas.

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble shows there is agreement among models for above average February to April precipitation in southern areas (Figure 7). Forecasts also show increased probability of above average temperatures.  Forecasts for above average temperatures could lead to an increased likelihood of premature snowmelt and flood events over the region.

 

 

Sobre Este Informe

El monitor estacional se produce para cada una de las cuatro regiones cubiertas por FEWS NET durante la estación de producción. Este informe actualiza los totales de las precipitaciones, las repercusiones sobre la producción y el pronóstico a corto tiempo. Producido por el científico regional del Servicio de Prospección Geológica de Estados Unidos de FEWS NET, el informe es producido cada 20 días durante la estación de producción. Conozca más sobre nuestro trabajo.

About FEWS NET

La Red de Sistemas de Alerta Temprana contra la Hambruna es un proveedor de primera línea de alertas tempranas y análisis sobre la inseguridad alimentaria. Creada por la USAID en 1985 con el fin de ayudar a los responsables de tomar decisiones a prever crisis humanitarias, FEWS NET proporciona análisis asentados en evidencia sobre unos 35 países. Entre los integrantes del equipo ejecutor figuran la NASA, NOAA, USDA y el USGS, así como Chemonics International Inc. y Kimetrica. Lea más sobre nuestro trabajo.

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