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Presence Country
Key Message Update

Second season bimodal harvests begin, while Karamoja endures harsh dry season

November 2018

November 2018 - January 2019

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Total second season cumulative rainfall has increased to slightly below average in most bimodal areas, but deficits 15 to 30 percent below average persist in some eastern, central, and southwestern districts. FEWS NET’s early estimates suggest national second season crop production may be 10 to 15 percent below average, though rainfall-deficit districts will likely have larger local production shortfalls. Green maize, beans, and other pulses are available in western, central, and southeastern regions, while late-planted maize and cereals are still in the reproductive stages and will not be fully harvested until January 2019. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are widespread, but some poor households in Teso sub-region are likely to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) given reduced yield prospects.  

  • In Karamoja, an unusually harsh dry season amplified by land surface temperatures 3 to 7 C° above average has led to early deterioration in pasture and water resources. Livestock migration to dry-season grazing areas is occurring earlier than normal, which has reduced household milk availability. Most poor households are relying on market purchases to access food. Those with limited income sources are struggling to meet their minimum food needs despite favorable firewood/charcoal-to-sorghum terms of trade. An estimated 50 percent of the population is Stressed (IPC Phase 2), while about 10 percent of the population – primarily in Kotido and Kaabong districts – are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

  • The UNHCR/OPM refugee verification exercise was completed at the end of October and tallied 1,154,352 refugees and asylum seekers, of which 68 and 25 percent are from South Sudan and DRC, respectively. Most refugees are Stressed! (IPC Phase 2), with food assistance continuing to prevent deterioration to Crisis (IPC Phase 3). The Revitalized Agreement for the Resolution of Conflict in South Sudan is expected to prioritize a permanent ceasefire, which may significantly reduce the level of displacement to Uganda and promote voluntary returns. Armed conflict in eastern DRC and the upcoming elections are likely to maintain or increase the current level of 100 DRC refugee arrivals per day. Ugandan authorities continue to surveil high-risk districts for cross-border transmission of Ebola.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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