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Presence Country
Key Message Update

Harvests in bimodal areas support food access, despite ongoing lean season in Karamoja

July 2018

July - September 2018

October 2018 - January 2019

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • In bimodal areas, average to above-average harvests are expected to maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes through January. In Karamoja, a July FEWS NET field assessment confirmed harvests will be delayed until September, extending the lean season. Although heavy rainfall has ceased, the impacts of flooding and waterlogging were more significant than previously anticipated, and are likely to lead to an estimated 30 to 60 percent decrease in yields. Maize crops, however, continue to perform well. Poor households will remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through September, when the harvest provides stocks sufficient to improve outcomes to Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through December. 

  • Surplus staple production in bimodal areas has increased overall market supply, keeping June prices comparable to the five-year average but below June 2017 prices by as much as 65 percent in key reference markets. In Karamoja, incoming flows from Teso and Lango sub-regions are supporting labor- and firewood-to-sorghum terms of trade that are above the five-year average.  These trends are expected to continue through August, enabling higher than normal food access for purchase-dependent households. 

  • Approximately 8,700 new refugees arrived in Uganda in June, primarily driven by conflict in South Sudan and the DRC. In July, the weekly arrival rate of DRC refugees increased 35 percent to 1,700, compared to early June. Rations continued at planned levels in July, maintaining Stressed! outcomes. However, WFP anticipates funding gaps may result in ration cuts for refugees by August. Should the absence of humanitarian assistance occur, food security is likely to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3). 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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