Key Message Update

Staple food prices atypically increase in Karamoja

July 2016

July - September 2016

Uganda July 2016 Food Security Projections for July to September

October 2016 - January 2017

Uganda July 2016 Food Security Projections for October to January

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • In Karamoja, a recent field visit found that most early-planted crops have been stunted by the atypically long May to June dry spell. This will result in below-average August harvests in many areas. Food security is not expected to improve until September when late-planted crops, which are developing more favorably, are harvested. Very poor households in Napak, Moroto, and Kaabong are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through August. 

  • In bimodal areas of Uganda, some staple crops have wilted as a result of the atypically long dry spell. Despite crop losses in southwestern and central regions, poor households are expected to gain sufficient income from the normal harvest of cash crops and meet food and non-food needs. In parts of Teso and Acholi Regions, where there was significant crop damage and perennial cash crops are not cultivated, many poor households have depleted personal stocks and are Stressed (IPC Phase 2). 

  • Prices are atypically increasing in Karamoja as a result of the delayed arrival of green harvests and below-average harvests in neighboring bimodal areas that supply the region. Between May and June, the price of maize increased between 7 and 32 percent across markets while the price of sorghum increased between 12 and 58 percent. Over the same time period, goat/sheep prices declined between 14 and 25 percent, further reducing household purchasing capacity. 

  • Seasonal forecasts and a high likelihood of a La Niña event occurring throughout the second rainy season are expected to drive below-average rainfall from October to December. This is likely to reduce agricultural labor opportunities and December/January harvest prospects.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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