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Presence Country
Key Message Update

Impact of extended lean season in Karamoja mitigated by surplus national cereal supply

August 2018

August - September 2018

October 2018 - January 2019

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Concentration of displaced people
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • In bimodal Uganda, surplus first season harvests are likely to maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes through at least January 2019. Most poor households in Karamoja are expected to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) until the end of the extended lean season in September, despite limited green and dry harvests available in the southern part of the subregion. However, rainfall 5 to 50 percent below average since June has resulted in deteriorating pasture conditions in western and northwestern cattle corridor areas and may inhibit maturation of late-planted sorghum crops in Karamoja.

  • Surplus cereal supply combined with an atypical decrease in export demand pushed prices below the five-year average across key reference markets in July. While retail maize prices remained near average, wholesale maize price declined 33 to 59 percent. Retail sorghum prices also declined up to 53 percent. In some districts, farmgate maize prices plummeted to UGX 150 (US$0.04) per kg. Inflows of low-priced food commodities are benefitting purchase-dependent households in Karamoja, though the reduction in income will limit essential non-food expenditures for some poor households in bimodal areas.

  • According to UNHCR, 1,720 and 7,434 South Sudanese and Congolese refugees fled to Uganda in July, bringing the cumulative number of new arrivals since January 2018 to 33,546 and 99,447, respectively. Rations continued at planned levels in August, maintaining Stressed! (IPC Phase 2!) outcomes. The risk of funding shortfalls remains, and should cuts to humanitarian assistance occur, food security among some refugee households would likely deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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