Sudan Flag

Presence Country
Key Message Update

Fuel and cash scarcity negatively affecting ongoing main season harvest

November 2018

November 2018 - January 2019

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Food security outcomes for displaced populations would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance.FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Food security outcomes for displaced populations would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance.FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The 2018/19 harvest is ongoing and available evidence indicates that crop yields were favorable due to above-average rainfall, though the high cost of labor and shortages of fuel and cash are adversely affecting harvesting activities, despite the fact that farmers are likely given priority to purchase fuel. It is expected the negative impact of these macroeconomic factors will be most significant in semi-mechanized areas. FEWS NET and partners are currently participating in the Crop and Food Security Assessment Mission (CFSAM), which will provide production estimates in December/January.

  • Despite austerity measures set by the government to curb the ongoing macroeconomic crises, the Sudanese Pound (SDG) has further depreciated to 53.5 SDG/USD on the parallel market, though the official exchange rate stands at 47.5 SDG/USD. By the end November, sorghum and millet prices started to decline seasonally in most markets, though prices remained unseasonably stable or atypically increased in other markets. It is expected these mixed trends are the result of the ongoing harvest, which is increasing market supply, and macroeconomic issues including currency devaluation, which are putting upward pressure on prices.

  • Cereal prices are anticipated to increase earlier than usual in April and remain 50-100 percent higher than last year and 150–200 percent above the five-year average through at least May 2019. Many poor households are expected to face atypically high food prices and have difficulty meeting their basic food needs. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely among some IDPs in South Kordofan and Jebel Mara, as well as poor households in northern Kassala, North Darfur, North Kordofan, and Red Sea State.

  • According to UNHCR, an estimated 764,400 South Sudanese refugees are residing in Sudan as of November, 30,420 of whom arrived in 2018. The number of new arrivals recorded in October was the lowest monthly arrival rate in 2018. Further arrivals are expected throughout the projection period, albeit at lower rates than last year. It is expected most South Sudanese refugees are Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) and humanitarian food assistance is preventing worse outcomes.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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