Key Message Update

Continuing poor macroeconomic conditions drive atypically high needs during lean season

May 2019

May 2019

June - September 2019

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Food security outcomes for displaced populations would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance.FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Food security outcomes for displaced populations would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance.FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Despite near average 2018/19 production, food security continues to deteriorate in many areas of Sudan, and late April/early May marked an early start of the lean season. Food security needs this year are higher than normal, exacerbated by poor macroeconomic conditions that are driving extremely high food prices. Poor households in most areas of Greater Darfur, North Kordofan, South Kordofan, southern Blue Nile, northern Kassala, and Red Sea states are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes through September, while IDPs in SPLM-N controlled areas of South Kordofan and SPLA-AW controlled areas of Jebel Marra are expected to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) during the August-September peak of the lean season.

  • Following the ousting of President Omar al-Bashir in April, civil unrest and disputes between the protesters’ Alliance for Freedom and Change Declaration and the Sudan’s Transitional Military Council persist. This has resulted in an environment of uncertainty, including hesitance to engage in formal banking, increasing activity on the parallel market. While the official exchange rate remains at 47.5 SDG/USD, the currency stood at 68 SDG/USD on the parallel market in May, up from 58 SDG/USD in January. Shortages of fuel, wheat, and wheat flour also persist, driving high prices. Staple food prices increased seasonally by 15-25 percent between March and April and are currently around 280-350 percent above average.

  • Preparations for the 2019/2020 agricultural season are underway in most semi-mechanized and irrigated agricultural areas, and it is expected that shortages of cash and fuel, which are crucial for land preparation and planting, will negatively impact the area under cultivation. Additionally, the high price of agricultural inputs will likely impact all sectors. In May, farmers have raised their concerns with these shortages and the delayed provision of inputs and finance, which are typically delivered by May.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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