Sudan Flag

Presence Country
Key Message Update

Increasing staple food prices continue to limit food access for poor households

March 2016

March - May 2016

Sudan March 2016 Food Security Projections for March to May

June - September 2016

Sudan March 2016 Food Security Projections for June to September

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Food security outcomes for displaced populations would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance.FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Food security outcomes for displaced populations would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance.FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Below-average 2015/16 harvests, higher than usual staple food prices, and poor pasture conditions are likely to result in a higher than usual number of food insecure people in Sudan during the March/April to September lean season. About 20 to 25 percent of the IDPs and poor households in SPLM-N areas and new IDPs in the Darfur states who do not receive humanitarian food assistance are likely to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) during the same time period. 

  • Increased conflict has displaced approximately 130,000 people from the Jebel Marra area since mid-January 2016, including about 27,000 people in March. Most newly displaced households are located in North Darfur and have lost access to household stocks, productive assets, and normal income-earning opportunities. Most of these are households are receiving some assistance, and are therefore in Crisis (IPC Phase 3!). However, households hiding in mountaintop areas of Central Darfur and East Jebel Marra in South Darfur are inaccessible to humanitarian assistance agencies, and are in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). 

  • Sorghum and millet prices increased unseasonably by 10 to 25 percent in most markets of Sudan between January and February 2016, driven by reduced market supplies following below-average 2015/16 production associated with El Niño and by increased demand from neighboring countries. In February 2016, sorghum prices were about 15 to 45 percent higher than at the same time last year. As market supplies tighten further and households begin to exhaust stocks in March/April 2016, further rapid prices increase of prices are highly expected.

  • Livestock prices decreased slightly on most markets in Sudan between January and February. This was mainly due to unfavorable pasture conditions in main grazing areas and extremely high fodder prices this year, which have led to increased sales of livestock. Although the opening the border with South Sudan is likely to facilitate the migration of animals to summer grazing areas, atypical increases in cereal prices from March to September 2016 will continue to reduce terms-of-trade between livestock and cereals. 

  • In contested areas of South Kordofan, conflict is expected to increase during the summer months and to further disrupt livelihoods and markets, and to trigger additional displacement. Food insecurity situation among IDPs and poor resident households in SPLM-N controlled areas is likely to further deteriorate from Crisis level (IPC Phase 3) to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) by March/April through September 2016. 

For more detailed analysis, see the Food Security Outlook for February – September 2016.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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