Key Message Update

Rains have been heavier since mid-August

September 2015
2015-Q3-1-1-SD-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Food security outcomes for displaced populations would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance.FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Since mid-August, the rains have been heavier. This has facilitated continued planting in rainfed areas. By mid-September, up to 65 percent of average area was planted, as opposed to only 40 percent planted in August. However, vegetation conditions as measured by the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) are well below average in the surplus-producing sorghum belt in eastern and central Sudan. While sorghum production prospects have improved, the late start of season, low rainfall, and below-average planted area have reduced seasonal agricultural labor demand, with daily wages being up to a third less than last year in nominal terms. 

  • Cereal prices started to seasonally increase from July to August. On average across monitored markets, sorghum prices increased nine percent, but in the surplus-producing sorghum belt in eastern and central Sudan, increases were higher. For example, in Gadaref, the sorghum price increased 22 percent, and in Sinar, it increased 33 percent. August sorghum prices were, on average, 29 percent below last year and 44 percent above their five-year averages.

  • The most acutely food insecure people in Sudan are in conflict-affected areas of Darfur, South Kordofan, West Kordofan, and Blue Nile States. The majority of the population in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) are in Darfur, especially among the recently displaced, but households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) can also be found among internally displaced persons (IDPs) in Sudan People Liberation Movement-North- (SPLM-N-) controlled areas of South Kordofan. 

  • In the wet-season grazing areas on the Al Buttanha plains in central Sudan, pasture is less available and of poorer quality than usual. As a result, in September, livestock were already being migrated southward towards agricultural land in Gadaref, Gazeira, Kassala, and Sinar States. Usually, this migration does not occur until December/January, with livestock typically arriving during or just after the harvest. As crops are in an earlier stage of development, there is a higher risk of crops being accidentally destroyed or consumed by livestock. Also, there is a higher than usual risk of conflict between those herding cattle and the year-round residents of these states.

     

    For more detailed analysis, see the Sudan Food Security Outlook Update for August 2015.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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