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Presence Country
Key Message Update

Risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) persists, including in Greater Baggari where access remains limited

November 2018

November 2018 - January 2019

February - May 2019

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • In November, food security has improved in many counties among households who harvested, though improvements are minimal in areas of greatest concern where harvests are well below average. Extreme levels of acute food insecurity persist, and some households are likely in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in Leer, Mayendit, Greater Baggari, Yirol West, Yirol East, Pigi/Canal, and Panyikang. A risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) also persists and is considered greatest in Greater Baggari and central Unity; however, new areas of concern could arise quickly should violence restrict household movement and humanitarian access.

  • Conflict continues in many areas of South Sudan, although incidents were lower in November than in October, and efforts towards engagement and confidence building between parties to the conflict are occurring. In Jonglei, where relative calm exists, some IDPs from Bor South Protection of Civilians (POC) site have recently returned to Ayod, Akobo, and Duk. Conversely, a November inter-agency assessment in Mugwo of Yei indicated 7,000 people were newly displaced and in need of assistance. Overall, widespread Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes persist, and food assistance is preventing more extreme outcomes in several counties of Greater Upper Nile, Greater Bahr el Ghazal, and Eastern Equatoria.

  • In Greater Baggari of Wau, insecurity continues to restrict humanitarian access. Despite ongoing access negotiations, humanitarian food assistance has not been delivered since early September, at which time evidence indicated some households were likely in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5). Roughly 250 households arrived in Wau town from Greater Baggari in mid-November and ACTED reported that they looked visibly exhausted upon arrival, though a formal nutrition screening was not conducted. Also in mid-November, Johanniter, an international NGO, was granted access to conduct a rapid assessment, though preliminary findings are not yet available. Famine (IPC Phase 5) is possible should conflict continue to restrict humanitarian access and household movement for an extended period of time.  

  • In Leer and Mayendit, ongoing food assistance is likely mitigating more extreme outcomes. Key informant information indicates assistance was provided via airdrops to Mayendit Headquarter, Thaker, Dablual, Leer Town, Padeah, Dindin, and Thornyor in October and November. Despite this assistance, with little to no harvest and restricted access to wild foods and fish, some households likely remain in Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in both counties. Should assistance be disrupted for a prolonged period, Famine (IPC Phase 5) would be likely.

  • Staple food prices have seasonally declined, and in some areas improvements in supply have also driven price declines. In Central Unity, market activity remains minimal, though trade flows have improved in recent months with the return of traders who fled in mid-2018, and the price of sorghum reduced from 1,500 SSP/kg in October to 1,000 SSP/kg in November. In Bor of Jonglei, market supply is near 2013 pre-crisis levels given improved security along trade routes, though prices are still extremely high due to persistent depreciation of the SSP and high cost of transportation. In Juba, the retail price of sorghum is 75 percent lower than the same time last year. Despite these improvements, prices remain extremely high compared to 2013 pre-crises levels and many households lack sufficient income to purchase their basic food needs.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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