South Sudan

• Food assistance needs remain extremely high in South Sudan at the start of the harvest in October, with 8.0-8.99 million people (55-60 percent of the population) in need of assistance. While 1.6 million people received food and cash assistance monthly in the lean season, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes persist in 67 counties, eight of which are in Emergency (IPC Phase 4). The key drivers are conflict, flood, and economic shocks, as well as a sustained, high returnee presence. Global acute malnutrition (GAM) levels among children under five are very high, exceeding a 15 percent prevalence in 39 counties. As the main harvest begins, needs are expected to decline to 7.0-7.99 million through January, before rising again prior to the lean season.
• Nasir (Upper Nile) and Fangak (Jonglei) are of highest concern, with some populations still experiencing Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) in October. Concurrent conflict incidents and flooding have disrupted crop production and access to wild foods, while severely constraining humanitarian access. While food assistance distributions are ongoing and planned to continue, reaching the most acutely food insecure households in isolated areas remains challenging due to insecurity, which has driven humanitarians to rely on airdrops, particularly in southern Nasir. Some populations are expected to experience Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) through at least May.
• From October to May, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes are expected to expand to 27 counties. Levels of acute malnutrition are projected to surpass 15 percent GAM prevalence in 42 counties by May, with Extremely Critical levels expected in Nasir, Ulang, Baliet, Duk, Rubkona, and Abyei due to a combination of food and non-food factors. Food assistance is expected to prevent severe outcomes in eight areas, mapped in Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!).
• A risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) will likely persist in Nasir through at least May. There is a credible alternative scenario in which conflict escalates to levels similar to or worse than early 2025, obstructing food assistance and converging with floodwaters to isolate populations from local food sources. If this occurs, then Famine (IPC Phase 5) would be likely. 

The analysis in this report is based on information available as of October 23, 2025.