Seasonal Monitor

Average to above-average rainfall brings relief after weeks of poor rainfall performance

May 28, 2019

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
USGS

In the May 11-20 period, Gu rainfall performance improved across many areas of Somalia with moderate to heavy rainfall amounts. According to RFE2 satellite-derived estimates (RFE2) and ground information, most of the country received 10-75 millimeters (mm) of rainfall (Figure 1). However, northern and central coastal areas, large parts of Gedo, and several other pockets in the South received less than 10 mm. Conversely, a large area encompassing parts of Bakool, Hiiran, and Galgaduud regions received 75-150 mm of rainfall. RFE2 satellite-derived data depict rainfall as climatologically average or slightly above the short-term mean (STM) across most of Somalia, with a higher surplus of 25-150 mm accumulating in parts of Juba, Shabelle, Bakool, Hiiraan, Galgaduud, and Mudug (Figure2). Both the Juba and Shabelle river water levels continued to rise as a result of precipitation over the river catchments in the Ethiopian highlands, but levels remain below the long-term average, keeping flood risk low.   

Situation

In the Northwest, moderate to heavy rainfall fell in most livelihood zones in Awdal and Woqooyi Galbeed regions during the May 11-20 period. The rains resulted in flash floods in parts of Guban Pastoral livelihood zone and in Hargeisa district. In Togdheer, localized moderate to light rains were reported across the region, causing some flash floods in agropastoral areas of Odweyne and Burao districts. Burao rain gauge station recorded 166 mm of rainfall within a 4-day period. In Sanaag, average rainfall amounts fell in most areas of Lasqoray and Badhan districts while Erigabo and Elafweyn districts received localized below-average to average rainfall. In Sool, moderate rainfall with average distribution fell across most of Hawd Pastoral livelihood zone and in Northern Inland Pastoral (NIP) livelihood zone of Lasanood; however, the rest of NIP received little to no rainfall, especially in Taleh and Huddun districts.

In the Northeast, rainfall amounts were varied during the May 10-20 period. In Bari, localized moderate rainfall was received in NIP livelihood zone of Bossaso and Qardho districts and East Golis Pastoral livelihood zone of Alula and Qandala districts. In Nugaal and northern Mudug, localized moderate to heavy rains were reported in Hawd and Addun Pastoral livelihood zones. However, the remaining areas of NIP (Iskshuban, Bandarbeyla, Eyl, Dangorayo), East Golis Pastoral (Bossaso and Iskushuban), and Coastal Deeh Pastoral and Fishing livelihood zones received little to no rainfall.

In central regions, rainfall was relatively better compared to previous 10-day reporting periods since the start of the Gu. Moderate to heavy rainfall was reported in highly localized areas across Galgaduud and southern Mudug regions during May 10-20 period. However, coastal areas across both regions received little to no rainfall. Although the rains were highly localized, they brought significant relief to pastoral areas by enhancing access to pasture, which has improved livestock body conditions and provided migration options from rain-deficit areas.

In the South, rainfall performance was quite varied during the May 10-20 period. Localized moderate to heavy rainfall was reported in most livelihood zones of Hiiraan, Middle Shabelle, Lower Juba, Bay, and Bakool regions. In contrast, precipitation was poor and below average in large parts of Lower Shabelle, most of Middle Juba and Gedo, Adan Yabal district of Middle Shabelle, and Jalalaqsi district of Hiiraan, especially in riverine and rainfed (maize) agropastoral areas. Rain gauge stations recorded 137.5 mm in Beledweyne (Hiiraan), 96 mm in Hudur (Bakool), 86 mm in Baidoa (Baidoa), 21 mm in Dinsor (Bay), 8 mm in Sakow (Middle Juba), and 6.5 mm in Janale (Lower Shabelle). River water levels in the Juba and Shabelle rivers rose during this period, but still remain below-average.

The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Vegetation Index (NDVI) for May 11-20 shows general improvement across the country, though vegetation deficits are still visible in most areas (Figure 3). According to the NOAA Climate Prediction Center’s seven-day forecast, rainfall amounts ranging from 20 mm to 100 mm are forecast across the South and in parts of the Northwest in the May 23-29 period. However, the rest of the country will likely receive little to no rainfall, especially in central and northeastern regions (Figure 4).

For more rain gauge data, please, contact So-Hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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