Seasonal Monitor

Little to no rainfall across most of Somalia in mid-June

June 26, 2019

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
USGS

In the June 11-20 period, little to no rainfall was reported in nearly all regions of Somalia. According to satellite-derived rainfall estimate data (RFE2), localized Xagaa-like showers were reported in parts of Lower Shabelle, Lower and Middle Juba, and Bay regions in the South and in some coastal areas of Bari region (Figure 1). However, field reports indicated that moderate rainfall with average distribution fell in Sool region, although remote sensing data does not reflect this. The RFE2 data suggest that dry conditions in this reporting period is generally climatologically average compared to the short-term mean (Figure 2). Exceptions include the Northwest and localized areas in the Northeast, central regions, and the South that accumulated light deficits and a few pockets in the Shabelle and Jubas that accumulated surplus rainfall. The Juba and Shabelle river water levels are below average levels, but some localized, minimal flooding was reported in parts of Middle Shabelle.   

Situation

In the Northwest, only localized showers were observed by remote sensing imagery in Northwestern Agropastoral livelihood zone of Gabiley district in Woqooyi Galbeed in the June 11-20 period. Otherwise, no other rainfall was observed in Awdal, Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, or Sanaag. However, moderate rains of average distribution, resulting in typical but localized and limited flash floods, were reported in Sool region according to field reports. 

In the Northeast, predominantly dry condtions were reported across Bari, Nugaal, and northern Mudug regions in the June 11-20 period, following moderate to heavy rainfall in early June. In Bari, some localized Xagaa showers were reported in coastal areas. No other rainfall was observed by satellite imagery or reported on the ground.

In central regions, a dry spell that first began in early June continued across both pastoral and agropastoral livelihood zones of Galgaduud and southern Mudug during the June 11-20 period. Cumulative rainfall in June has been minimal, which is likely to stagnate or reverse recent gains in rangeland resource availability and livestock conditions.     

In the South, rainfall was suppressed for the second consecutive 10-day period in most regions. No rains were reported in any livelihood zones of Bakool, Hiiraan, and Gedo and in most of Middle and Lower Shabelle, Middle and Lower Juba, and Bay. However, localized light to moderate showers were reported in coastal and adjacent inland areas of the Shabelle and Juba regions and in southern agropastoral zones of Bay region. Most rain gauge stations recorded little to no rainfall, but Afgoye and Janaale rain gauges recorded 17.5 mm and 13.5 mm, respectively. The Shabelle river water level started to slowly subside during the June 11-20 period, despite some episodes of limited flooding in parts of Middle Shabelle due to poor flood risk infrastructure. Both the Juba and Shabelle river water stages are below typical levels.  

The satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) continues to show notable improvement from previous reporting periods although many areas of the South show slight vegetation deficits (Figure 3). Areas that are white are obscured by cloud cover. The seven-day rainfall forecast ending June 30th indicates that most of the country will continue to see little to no rainfall, with the exception of southern Lower Shabelle and upper Middle Juba regions where rainfall up to 30 mm is expected (Figure 4).  

For more rain gauge data, please, contact So-Hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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