Somalia flag

Presence Country
Seasonal Monitor

Cumulative October to December Deyr 2018 rainfall below average across Somalia

January 10, 2019

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
USGS

The October to December 2018 Deyr rainy season started late and was delayed by one to three weeks across most of the country. Seasonal rainfall performance was generally below average in terms of amount and distribution, though the South received higher rainfall amounts relative to central and northern regions. In the North, satellite-derived estimates indicate that total cumulative rainfall ranged from 10 to 50 millimeters (mm) in most areas; however, localized areas in Woqooyi Galbeed, Togdheer, and Awdal received up to 100 mm (Figure 1). In central regions, rainfall totals ranged from 10 to 50 mm in most areas, while localized pockets received 50 to 75 mm. In the South, most of Gedo and Middle and Lower Juba as well as southern Bay and Bakool received 100 to 200 mm of rainfall; meanwhile, Hiiraan, most of Middle and Lower Shabelle, and parts of northern Bakool and Gedo received 50 to 100 mm of rainfall. Compared to the short-term mean (STM), most of the country received rainfall that was 10 to 75 mm below average. However, large parts of Bay and Lower Juba and parts of Middle and Lower Shabelle and Hiiraan accumulated deficits of 75 to 100 mm, with some localized deficits of 100 to 200 mm (Figure 2). In contrast, large parts of Awdal, Bari, and Sool in the North and Gedo in the South received average or above average rainfall up to 25 mm above the STM.   

Situation

In the Northwest, cumulative Deyr rainfall was generally below average in amount and distribution and temporally and spatially atypical. The start of Deyr rainfall was on time in highly localized areas, while some localized parts of Togdheer, Sool, and Sanaag received atypically early rainfall in September. Overall, rainfall was restricted to September and October, and dry spells prevailed in most of November and in December. However, large parts of Awdal and localized areas of Woqooyi Galbeed, Sanaag, and Sool regions received relatively average or above average amounts, according to satellite-derived CHIRPS data.

In the Northeast, Deyr rainfall anomalies varied. In some highly localized areas, the rains started in early October and total seasonal rainfall was below average in terms of amount and distribution. In Bari, localized light to moderate rains fell in late October and early November in Northern Inland, Coastal Deeh, and Golis Pastoral livelihood zones, but the rains ceased atypically early. Rainfall in Nugaal and northern Mudug was especially poor, where only small pockets of Hawd Pastoral and eastern Addun Pastoral livelihood zones briefly received light to moderate rainfall in October. Otherwise, most areas reported no rainfall in most of November and December. According to CHIRPS, cumulative rainfall was average to slightly above average in large parts of Bari; however, ground information suggests rainfall was below average. Both CHIRPS and ground information indicate cumulative rainfall was below average in Bari’s coastal areas and in Nugaal and northern Mudug.

In central regions, Deyr rainfall was below average. Rainfall generally started on time and continued through late October, especially in localized areas of Hawd and Addun Pastoral livelihood zones and parts of Cowpea Agropastoral livelihood zone. After an early November dry spell, localized moderate rains occurred from mid- to late November through December in large parts of Coastal Deeh Pastoral and Cowpea Agropastoral livelihood zones in Hobyo, Harardhere, and Elder districts. While overall rainfall performance in central Somalia was below average, eastern areas – including coastal areas and cowpea producing-areas – received relatively better rainfall than Hawd and Addun Pastoral zone.

In the South, cumulative Deyr rainfall deficits were most pronounced. The rains were delayed until late October in most regions, when moderate rains fell with fair distribution. No significant rainfall occurred in the first 10 days of November, and only localized light to moderate rainfall amounts were reported through the end of November. In December, most of Middle and Lower Juba, Middle and Lower Shabelle, and agropastoral areas in Bay received localized moderate to light rains; however, the rest of the South remained dry. Cumulative Deyr rainfall was widely below average and poorly distributed, with the exception of parts of western Gedo where remote sensing data indicates total rainfall was slightly above the STM (Figure 2). No flooding events were reported throughout the Deyr season due to poor rainfall performance within Somalia as well as in the Ethiopian highlands. Both the Shabelle and Juba river water levels are within their normal range.

Although satellite-derived eMODIS Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data indicate favorable vegetation conditions in some parts of southern and central Somalia, vegetation deficits persist in many areas (Figure 3). Field reports suggest conditions are worse in northern Somalia than NDVI currently indicates. Conditions in the South and in central regions range between below average to slightly above average, while conditions in the North are significantly below average, according to field information. The Climate Prediction Center’s 7-day rainfall forecast predicts no rainfall, signaling the end of the Deyr rainfall season (Figure 4). 

For more rain gauge data, please, contact So-Hydro@fao.org or visit www.faoswalim.org.

About this Report

The seasonal monitor, produced by the FEWS NET USGS regional scientist and FEWS NET Regional Technical Manager, updates rainfall totals, the impact on production, and the short-term forecast. It is produced every 20 days during the production season. Find more remote sensing information here.

 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

USAID logoUSGS logoUSDA logo
NASA logoNOAA logoKimetrica logoChemonics logo