Key Message Update

Crisis (IPC Phase 3) now expected in parts of Bay, Bakool, and Togdheer regions

November 2018

November 2018 - January 2019

February - May 2019

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Based on FSNAU and FEWS NET’s preliminary Deyr 2018 assessment in November, below-average, poorly distributed rainfall and high pest incidence are expected to result in below-average Deyr cereal production. Production will likely be 60 to 70 percent of average in most southern regions, but significantly below average in low potential agropastoral areas. However, early-planted, pump-irrigated maize production will likely be average. Carry-over Gu stocks, the Deyr harvest, normal livestock production, and favorable terms of trade are expected to sustain Minimal (IPC phase 1) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes across most of the South, but Bay Bakool Low Potential Agropastoral livelihood zone is likely to deteriorate to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) by February.

  • In most central agropastoral areas, Deyr crops experienced widespread germination failure or severe moisture stress in the early vegetative stages. As a result, a below-average cowpea harvest is anticipated. In northwestern agropastoral areas, FSNAU and the Ministry of Agriculture of Somaliland estimate the Gu/Karan 2018 cereal harvest was 78 percent below the seven-year average, which is worse than previously projected, due to below-average rainfall, above-average temperatures, and high stalk borer and Quelea bird incidence. Poor Deyr crop and fodder production is also likely. Though current outcomes will largely be maintained, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are now expected in Togdheer Agropastoral livelihood zone by February. 

  • Pasture and water availability is limited in some northeastern and central pastoral regions. A medium level of livestock births occurred, but some newborns may not survive the Deyr and upcoming Jilaal dry season. Body conditions, milk production, and livestock value may deteriorate more quickly than previously anticipated. Given already unsustainable livestock holdings, poor pastoral households’ access to food and income are likely to decline through April. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) is expected in Northern Inland Pastoral, Addun Pastoral, and Coastal Deeh Pastoral and Fishing livelihood zones and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in Guban Pastoral livelihood zone.

  • In November, markets across Somalia remain well supplied with local cereals given the availability of recent (September/October) off-season harvests and the release of Gu carry-over stocks by middle and better-off households. In October 2018, maize and sorghum prices were up to 42 percent below the five-year average and up to 50 percent below October 2017 prices in most southern markets. Prices are expected to remain below average through April 2019 mainly due to the availability of carry-over stocks, which will offset the shortfalls expected from below-average Deyr production and serve to stabilize market supply.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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