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Presence Country
Key Message Update

Gu production now expected to be above average

July 2018

July - September 2018

October 2018 - January 2019

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Based on recent field assessments, rainfed Gu production in southern agropastoral areas is likely to be above average, which is better than previously expected. Although riverine production in July will be well below average, rainfed production combined with an above-average riverine off-season harvest in September will lead to overall above-average Gu production. Atypically low cereal prices are likely through September and livestock conditions are also expected to further improve. Food security is improving overall, but most poor households will experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) or Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity through January 2019.

  • In Guban Pastoral livelihood zone, significantly low herd sizes prevail following losses during Cyclone Sagar and the 2016/2017 drought, and poor households would be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in the absence of humanitarian assistance. IDP settlements also remain an area of greatest concern, where most are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Large-scale assistance reached 1.9 million people per month in May and June across Somalia, or 75 percent of the estimated 2.5 million in need. Assistance has likely prevented more severe outcomes, and food security would deteriorate significantly in its absence.

  • In Northwestern Agropastoral livelihood zone, high fuel costs led to a decrease in area planted in semi-mechanized areas. As a result, a significantly below-average maize harvest is expected in August. Windy and drier than normal July conditions negatively affected long-cycle sorghum crop establishment, but production may recover with the forecast average August/September Karan rains. Given low herd sizes, poor households are likely to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through September, when off-season green maize and horticultural crops become available.

  • After widespread flooding during the Gu season in riverine areas in Hiiraan, Gedo, Middle Shabelle, and Lower and Middle Juba regions, the July harvest is likely to be significantly below average. This has caused a decrease in agricultural labor opportunities, despite ongoing recessional cultivation. Poor households are expected to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through September, when above-average off-season cereals will be harvested.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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