Key Message Update

Food insecurity worsens with below-average Gu harvest

July 2016

July - September 2016

Somalia July 2016 Food Security Projections for July to September

October 2016 - January 2017

Somalia July 2016 Food Security Projections for October to January

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • In most southern agropastoral areas, including Bakool, Gedo, Hiiraan, Lower Juba, and parts of Lower and Middle Shabelle, below-average and erratic Gu rainfall has led to significantly below-average Gu harvests. Of particular concern are riverine areas of Hiiraan where poor rainfall and flooding destroyed an estimated 80 percent of standing crops. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes currently exist in Hiiraan and are likely in the remaining areas starting in October. 

  • Cereal prices in surplus-producing markets have atypically increased from May to June. In Bay, the price of sorghum increased 51 percent while the price of maize in Lower Shabelle increased 19 percent. Price increases are attributed to both escalating clan conflict that is reducing trade flows and to farmers withholding stocks from the markets in anticipation that below-average production will drive higher prices in August/September. 

  • In most southern pastoral areas, moderate rainfall in mid-June enhanced pasture and water resources, supporting improvements in livestock body conditions. Current pasture conditions are expected to sustain normal migration patterns during the July to September Xagaa season. Livestock productivity and values are favourable and poor households are expected to maintain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through September. 

  • Seasonal forecasts and a high likelihood of a La Niña event occurring throughout the Deyr season suggest October to December rainfall will be below average. It is expected this will lead to below-average Deyr production and fail to adequately restore pasture and water resources. Food security is expected to deteriorate throughout much of Somalia from October to January. Areas of highest concern are southern agropastoral areas where expected below-average Deyr production will follow significantly below-average Gu production. 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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