Remote Monitoring Report

Fifth consecutive average to above-average season supports continued Minimal (IPC Phase1) outcomes

June 2019 to January 2020

June - September 2019

October 2019 - January 2020

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • After a delayed start in March, rainfall continued two weeks later than usual, allowing late planted crops to fully mature. Farmers reported average to above-average harvests across the country. Since initial climate forecast for the October 2019 to January 2020 period favors above-average rainfall for Rwanda, harvests around January 2020 are also likely to be average to above-average, supporting Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food security outcomes through the first quarter of 2020.

  • According to the National Institute of Statistics, food prices in rural areas have remained stable and below the five-year average in nominal prices. Food prices are likely to decline following June/July harvests, while income earning opportunities through agricultural labor and construction remain normal. As a result, poor households’ access to food is expected to further improve until at least October.

  • An estimated 145,00 refugees continue to be the largest population of concern in Rwanda. That number has remained stable for the last 3 years, despite fear that the security situations in the DRC and Burundi could deteriorate, leading to additional asylum seekers and refugees. Refugees are increasingly integrated with national economic and social systems and still receive food and non-food assistance from various UN and NGOs organizations. As a result, this population is expected to face no acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1!) through January 2020.

ZONE CURRENT ANOMALIES PROJECTED ANOMALIES
National Due to the Uganda custom post closure last February, large quantity imports of maize and beans have almost entirely ceased. However, above-average crop production in Rwanda and exports from Tanzania have partially filled the import gap. Although most commodity prices have remained stable, the prices of Tanzanian food imports reportedly increased by 15–25 percent while remaining below average, leading the prices of cheaper substitutes to also increase. At this time, there are no indications that trade will be restored between Uganda and Rwanda during the outlook period. Urban consumers in Rwanda are likely to have less access to those nutritious foods such as maize, beans, and meat as import restrictions continue.

 

PROJECTED OUTLOOK THROUGH JANUARY 2020

Despite starting late in March, rains from early April to early June were above normal, allowing seasonal crops to grow to full maturity. Because of excessive rains in early June in the Eastern and Northern provinces and rainfall deficits in April in Southwestern Rwanda, moisture sensitive crops such as beans and Irish potatoes were moderately damaged resulting in average production. However, production of other crops such as maize, cassava, sweet potatoes and banana was above average for the fifth consecutive season. Abundant rains in June also recharged well-water tables in marshlands and Season July-October 2019 C harvests, which contribute 15 percent of annual food production, are likely to also be average to above average. Furthermore, the initial Season 2020 A climate forecasts favor normal to above-normal rainfall, resulting in average to above-average harvests (Season A contributing about 60-65 percent to annual crop production) by December 2019 to January 2020.

According to RATIN price forecast, Ugandan beans prices are likely to be about 25 percent lower by September 2019 (Figure 1). However, since the main border post of Gatuna in northern Rwanda remains closed, Ugandan producers and traders will not be able to sell beans to Rwanda. Although Tanzanian bean surplus available for export will depend on the harvest, RATIN predicts that Rwanda will still be able to profitably import Tanzania maize during the June 2019-January 2020 period.

Taking advantage of the current food security conditions, the Government of Rwanda and partners are now focusing on reducing chronic food insecurity and rates of under-five stunting, currently at 35 percent. UN organizations (UNICEF, WHO, WFP and the FAO) are working together in partnership with the Government to reduce infant chronic malnutrition in the most food insecure areas of western and southern district and refugee camps and achieve more durable impacts in the primary school feeding programs. The estimated 145,000 refugees hosted in Rwanda are likely to face no acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1!) through January 2020, as they continue to be gradually integrated in the national social and economic systems and receive cash-based food assistance.

About Remote Monitoring

In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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