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Early onset of seasonal rainfall supports Season 2020 A planting

  • Key Message Update
  • Rwanda
  • September 2019
Early onset of seasonal rainfall supports Season 2020 A planting

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • Planting of 2020 Season A crops is near completion across most of Rwanda, supported by the early onset of seasonal rainfall. Given the forecast for above rainfall from September to December 2019, the December-January harvest will likely be average. This, along with the ongoing average to above-average 2019 Season B harvest, is expected to support Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes through early 2020. However, in drier Eastern districts and areas of the South Province with poor soil fertility, some households are likely to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2), as their food reserves will be low in October-November.

    • According to the National Institute of Statistics, urban food prices in August 2019 were 2.7 percent higher than August 2018 and 2.5 percent higher than July 2019. In rural areas where trade flows are weaker, those increases were 4.2 and 4.7 percent, respectively. Although food prices remain lower than the three-year average, these rates of increase are higher than expected. In the event that normal cross-border trade is restored between Uganda and Rwanda, food prices would likely stabilize.

    • The number of refugees living in Rwanda is still estimated at 149,000, about half of whom are from the DRC and half of whom are from Burundi. In addition, Rwanda will soon host 500 refugees and asylum-seekers currently in detention centers in Libya, as a result of a transit mechanism agreed upon by the Government of Rwanda, UNHCR, and the African Union. Given that refugees are gradually being integrated in national social and economic systems, while still receiving cash-based and in-kind assistance, refugees in Rwanda are expected to continue facing No Acute Food Insecurity (IPC Phase 1!) through at least February 2020.

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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