Key Message Update

Ebola cases confirmed in DRC along border with Rwanda, though cross border movement continues

July 2019

July - September 2019

October 2019 - January 2020

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • As bean and cereal harvests continue and reach completion, key informants confirm average to above-average production is likely across the country. Current conditions and forecasted favorable rainfall for October 2019 to January 2020 are expected to support favorable production, which will in turn facilitate normal labor opportunities and below-average food prices. Together, these factors are likely to sustain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) food security outcomes through at least January 2020.

  • On July 16, the WHO declared an Ebola International Health Emergency, following the first case diagnosed in Goma, DRC, a twin city to the northwestern Rwanda city of Gisenyi/Rubavu. This declaration has prompted more rigorous screenings and additional control measures along the border, as a second case was confirmed at the end of July. However, preliminary information indicates that this has not reduced the number of people, estimated at 60,000, crossing the border daily to buy food for own consumption or for trade.

  • According to the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda, food prices decreased marginally between May and June 2019 and by about one percent compared to June 2018. Food prices are expected to drop further between June and July, as harvests of bean and cereal crops come to market. Despite increased imports from Tanzania, and the fact that prices of staple commodities remain generally below the five-year averages, FEWS NET analysis suggests that these prices are still higher than otherwise expected due to the border post closure in February.

  • According to UNHCR, the number of refugees in Rwanda was about 149,000 at the end of April 2019, roughly 4,400 people more than the number of refugees at the same time last year. Most newly arrived refugees are from Burundi. As a result of programs aimed at integrating refugees into national economic and social systems, and food and non-food assistance, refugees in Rwanda are likely in Minimal (IPC Phase 1!). However, in the absence of humanitarian assistance, many refugees would face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) food security outcomes and some could be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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