Key Message Update

Average Season A production likely despite late start of October to December rainfall

January 2019

January 2019

February - May 2019

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Despite the late start of the October to December rainy season, total seasonal rainfall was above average, supporting normal crop development for maize, beans, bananas, and roots and tubers. Overall, Season A crop production is expected to be average across the country. March to June Season B rainfall is forecast to be average, and normal production in June is also expected. Average local production, alongside low staple food prices and typical labor opportunities, are likely to support Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes through at least May 2019.  

  • According to the National Institute of Statistics of Rwanda, food prices in rural areas, where most poor households live, have decreased by 3.1 percent between November and December. This decrease is favorable for households’ food access and is atypical for the peak of the 2018 lean season. With ongoing harvests, food prices should further decrease through March before raising at the start of the next peak hunger month in April 2019.

  • The number of refugees in Rwanda remains around 145,000, almost all of whom are from Burundi and the DRC. The 2019 Regional Refugee Response Plan for Burundian and Congolese refugees seeks to expand local livelihood opportunities for refugees and host communities and integrate refugees’ issues in development plans, though funding for the plan remains low. Most refugees continue to receive in-kind or cash-based assistance and are likely Stressed (IPC Phase 2!) or experiencing no acute food insecurity (IPC Phase 1!) in the presence of this humanitarian assistance.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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