Key Message Update

Drought, conflict, and macroeconomic shocks drive Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes

June 2019

May 2019

June - September 2019

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Somalia, Sudan, and Uganda.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET continues to monitor food security conditions in areas mapped in gray.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Somalia, Sudan, and Uganda.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET continues to monitor food security conditions in areas mapped in gray.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes persist in Yemen and South Sudan, and there remains a risk of Famine (IPC Phase 5) in both countries. In South Sudan, food security deteriorated in May with the exhaustion of household food stocks, increased staple food prices, and low access to milk. In Yemen, conflict shifted to northern and southern areas of the country (Hajjah, Tai’zz, Sa’ada, Ad Dali), disrupting trade from Aden Port to the North; at the same time, a slowdown in fuel imports led to fuel price volatility. Humanitarian food assistance continues to mitigate worse outcomes in areas where Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) exists, but lower-than-anticipated deliveries in South Sudan in April resulted in deterioration from Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!) to Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in several counties of Greater Upper Nile and Northern Bahr el Ghazal. Further, Catastrophe (IPC Phase 5) is likely among households in Panyikang of Upper Nile and Canal/Pigi of Jonglei in South Sudan.

  • Although rainfall performance improved mid-May to early June, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or worse outcomes are expected due to the impact of drought conditions in the Horn of Africa and northeastern Uganda. Poor households have food consumption gaps resulting from constrained access to food and income sources, especially in the lowlands of Amhara and Oromia and Somali region of Ethiopia; eastern and northern pastoral and marginal agricultural areas of Kenya; north-central pastoral and several agropastoral areas of Somalia; and Karamoja of Uganda. In Somalia, Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is likely in several areas of concern. Rising food prices, reduced livestock holdings, and below-average agricultural labor demand is eroding household income and purchasing power for market-dependent households, causing substantial deterioration in household food security.

  • Political instability and social unrest continue to drive deterioration in food security in Sudan and parts of Ethiopia. Restricted movement, limited access to food and income sources, below-average crop production, and poor macroeconomic conditions have led to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in parts of the Red Sea, Kassala, Al Gadarif, Blue Nile, West Kordofan, North Kordofan, South Kordofan, and Greater Darfur of Sudan. IDPs in SPLM-N controlled areas of South Kordofan and SPLA-AW controlled areas of Jebel Marra are expected to be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) in the August-September peak of the lean season since they remain unable to access food assistance. In Ethiopia, some displaced households in Oromia and Amhara are returning home, but Emergency (IPC Phase 4) is still expected among those that are still displaced in Gedeo of SNNPR.

  • According to a convergence of the NMME, IRI, and GeoCOF seasonal forecasts, near-average rainfall is now most likely during the June-September season in East Africa’s northern and eastern sectors. This is the main production season in South Sudan, Sudan, western Kenya, and Karamoja sub-region of Uganda, and an important secondary season in western Ethiopia and northwestern Somalia. However, higher than average land surfaces temperatures are forecast in the July-September dry season in pastoral and agropastoral areas of Kenya, Somalia, Djibouti, northern Sudan, and Yemen, which could stagnate or reverse recent gains in pasture, browse, and water. This coincides with the lean season in most affected areas.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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