Key Message Update

Severe food insecurity outcomes persist in conflict and drought-affected areas

February 2019

January 2019

February - May 2019

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Somalia, Sudan, and Uganda.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET continues to monitor food security conditions in areas mapped in gray.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Not mapped
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
National Parks/Reserves
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
Not mapped
Concentration of displaced people – hover over maps to view food security phase classifications for camps in Somalia, Sudan, and Uganda.
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET continues to monitor food security conditions in areas mapped in gray.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Conflict and macroeconomic shocks continued to drive severe acute food security across Yemen and South Sudan in January. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are widespread, and large populations in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) face wide food gaps and/or extreme depletion of livelihood assets. In Yemen, should conflict increase such that imports and trade in staple food commodities are significantly disrupted, Famine (IPC Phase 5) would be possible. In South Sudan, Famine (IPC Phase 5) would be likely in the prolonged absence of humanitarian assistance. Areas of greatest concern remain Sa’ada and Hajjah governorates in Yemen, and Greater Upper Nile, and parts of Western Bar El Ghazal and Lakes in South Sudan. Sustained, large-scale food assistance is critical to saving lives and preventing further deterioration in food security outcomes.

  • High food prices in December and January continue to constrain household purchasing power and access to food for poor households in Sudan, South Sudan, and parts of Uganda’s Karamoja sub-region. Sorghum and millet prices in Sudan were 270 and 150 percent above the five-year and last year averages, respectively, and 170 and 133 percent above the five-year and last year average, respectively, in Wau, South Sudan. In Kaabong, Karamoja, sorghum prices were 22 and 80 percent above the five-year and last year average, respectively. This has driven declining terms of trade, leading to household food gaps and use of crisis coping strategies. As a result, poor households are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) or Crisis! (IPC Phase 3!).

  • Below-average October-December rainfall and atypically high land surface temperatures since January are causing earlier-than-normal depletion of rangeland resources in central and northern Somalia, northern and eastern Kenya, and southern Ethiopia. In Kenya, trekking distances to water and pasture resources are already 30 to 45 percent above average in Turkana county. In Ethiopia, current conditions are also being exacerbated by conflict-induced displacement and restricted humanitarian access. As livestock body conditions deteriorate, declines in livestock production and cereal-to-livestock terms of trade are expected to drive Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes until May. Somalia’s Guban Pastoral livelihood zone would be in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) without food assistance.

  • According to the NOAA/CPC, March to May rainfall is forecast to begin one week early and be average or above average over much of the East African region. While an early onset would benefit pastoral areas, it would likely disrupt crop production in areas where Deyr/short rains harvests and Gu/long rains land preparation will have not yet been completed. In contrast, below-average rainfall is likely along coastal south-central Somalia. Poor rainfall would negatively impact livestock body conditions and value and crop production, likely leading to an increase in the number of households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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