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Presence Country
Key Message Update

Below-average short rains production expected in marginal agricultural areas

November 2018

November 2018 - January 2019

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • At the peak of the October to December short rains season, most pastoral livelihood zones remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and most agricultural livelihood zones remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1). However, seasonal rainfall performance has been below average, accumulating rainfall deficits up to 200 mm in central Kenya, up to 100 mm in eastern Kenya, and up to 25 mm in other areas, according to satellite-derived rainfall estimates. In contrast, there are positive anomalies of 10 to 100 mm in the southwest and along the coast and 10 to 25 mm in parts of northern Kenya.

  • In marginal agricultural areas, a below-average short rains harvest is expected due to delayed onset of the rains by 10 to 30 days and poor temporal distribution. Land preparation and planting are still ongoing in most areas. In Kilifi, crops are in the germination stages, but in Meru North sub-county, crops have withered under abnormally dry conditions. Poor households also have fewer agricultural casual labor opportunities. Household stocks from long rains production and below-average staple food prices will continue to drive Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes, though Lamu, Makueni, and Embu are expected to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) until the harvest.

  • In pastoral areas, average to above-average forage and livestock body conditions persist in some areas due to the lingering effects of the above-average long rains season, according to field reports. In other areas, poor rainfall performance has led to below-normal vegetation conditions and further deterioration is anticipated. Livestock prices in October were 13 to 30 percent above the five-year average across reference markets and reached as high as 73 percent above average in Marsabit, primarily driven by good body conditions. As a result, household income and purchasing power are above average. However, below-average rainfall is likely to impact livestock production and migration by January. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are likely to be maintained. 

  • Staple food prices in urban reference markets across the country remained favorable in October due to available 2017 stocks and long rains harvests, stabilizing access to food for households reliant on market purchases.  Maize prices were 20 to 35 percent below the five-year average. Dry bean prices remained near average except in Mombasa, where prices were 14 percent below average due to available substitutes and cross-border imports. Overall, current staple food prices range from 15 to 50 percent below 2017 prices as a result of increased supplies from improved production and cross-border imports. 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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