Key Message Update

Early onset of long rains driving crop production activities and rangeland resource regeneration

March 2018

March - May 2018

June - September 2018

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Concentration of displaced people
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The March – May long rains began atypically early countrywide and with significantly above-average amounts, upwards of 145 percent of the long-term averages. The rains are welcomed after the extended dry season in many eastern areas of the country, improving water availability, but have also led to flooding. In Kajiado, Makueni, and Kilifi, flooding destroyed property, displaced households, and caused approximately five deaths, mostly children.

  • The late February to mid-March rainfall in pastoral areas is beginning to drive forage regeneration, and livestock body conditions are likely to improve by late March. As a result, this is expected to increase milk production and livestock prices. For now, livestock, especially cattle, still remain in the dry-season grazing areas, except in Marsabit, where pastoralists have been able to move them to the wet-season grazing areas near homesteads.

  • In the marginal agricultural areas, land preparation activities began in early March and planting is already ongoing due to the sufficient and consistent rains. However, additional flooding remains a concern given the short-term forecast, which could negatively affect production. The increase in on-farm labor opportunities is facilitating needed market food purchases, following below-average production and low household stocks. The majority of poor households in these areas are experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes.

  • Due to conflict in Ethiopia’s Oromia Region, about 10,000 refugees have recently fled into Marsabit’s Moyale Sub-County, and there is the potential there could be additional influxes. According to the Marsabit County Steering Group and humanitarian agencies operating within the County, this population is in urgent need of food assistance. FEWS NET will continue to monitor the situation. 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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