Ethiopia flag

Presence Country
Key Message Update

Poor seasonal rainfall again hits southern pastoral areas

November 2018

November 2018 - January 2019

February - May 2019

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.
Partners: 
WFP

Key Messages

  • October to December 2018 seasonal rainfall has been below-average and erratic in southern pastoral areas except in and around Shabelle and Nogob. The start of the Deyr/Hageya season was delayed and long dry spells have been reported. Rangeland conditions have remained mixed, with many southern pastoral areas still seeing improvements owing in part to residual soil moisture, while parts of southwestern Somali and southern Oromia are experiencing below-average rangeland regeneration.

  • Most 2018 Meher crops across the country are at the harvest stage, if not harvested yet, with some still at the maturity stage. However, the development of unseasonal rainfall in October and November, particularly in parts of Tigray, Amhara, SNNPR, and western and central Oromia, has hindered harvest and storage activities, impacting harvest yields in affected areas.

  • Intermittent clashes among communities in Oromia, SNNPR, Somali, Benishangul Gumuz, Amhara, and Tigray regions have continued as more people become displaced by violence. The violence is also in many instances keeping households from their livelihoods and restricting humanitarian access. According to a November UN-OCHA humanitarian bulletin, an estimated 240,000 people from Benishangul Gumuz region have been displaced due to violence that started in late September.

  • Much of Ethiopia is expected to remain in Minimal (IPC Phase 1) through the first half of 2019. However, southern pastoral areas that continue to recover from previous drought and northern pastoral Afar will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Localized agricultural areas that saw poor 2018 rainfall will also experience Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes. Additionally, conflict-affected woredas, particularly those that have seen associated levels of displacement, will also likely remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3).

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

USAID logoUSGS logoUSDA logo
NASA logoNOAA logoKimetrica logoChemonics logo