Key Message Update

Food insecurity intensifies despite late and erratic Gu/Gena/Belg season rainfall

May 2019

May 2019

Map of Projected food security outcomes, April to May 2019 : Minimal (IPC Phase 1) throughout most of Western Ethiopia, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in parts of SNNPR, Dire Dawa, Harari, Afar, Tigray, and Amhara, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in most of Somali, and part

June - September 2019

Map of Projected food security outcomes, June to September 2019 : Minimal (IPC Phase 1) throughout most of Western Ethiopia, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) in parts of SNNPR, Dire Dawa, Harari, Afar, Tigray, and Amhara, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in most of Somali and

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Despite enhanced rainfall in the second dekad of May 2019 over many areas of Ethiopia, due to the late starting, erratic, and below-average Gu/Genna rains, particularly in southern and southeastern pastoral areas, food security outcomes in these areas are expected to deteriorate. In East and West Hararghe zones of Oromia food consumption gaps consistent with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food security outcomes are likely from June to September. Northern Somali, major parts of East and West Hararghe, Northeastern Amhara, and Borena and Guji zones of Oromia are expected to move from Stressed (IPC Phase 2) to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in June due to low household purchasing power, a lack of confirmed humanitarian assistance, and lack of pasture for livestock.

  • The Gu/Genna season rainfall in the second decade of May 2019 rejuvenated water points for both livestock and human consumption in some woredas of Somali Region, Borena and Guji zones of Oromia, and  South Omo in southern SNNPR, where improved water availability is reported. Pasture and water are expected to remain improved for a short period, but improved livestock body conditions and productivity are not expected until the Deyr/Hageya season in October. In East and West Hararghe zones of Oromia, livestock deaths are being reported.

  • Below normal area-planted and suppressed crop growth in Belg-producing areas due to the below-average rainfall season will likely lead to Belg crop failure in East and West Hararghe. In other parts of the country below-average Belg production is likely despite improved rainfall in May. Meher long-cycle crops, and Belg-planted Meher maize and sorghum, especially in East and West Hararghe, the Rift Valley of Oromia, and SNNPR also suffered growth delays due to the poor rainfall which will negatively affect production.

  • In East and West Hararghe, Bale lowlands, parts of Guji and Borena Zones of Oromia and Somali region, poor households are already experiencing constrained food access, as they are highly market dependent during the peak of the lean season. Staple food prices, especially for maize, and wheat flour remain atypically high.Children’s nutrition status is deteriorating in East and West Hararghe and Bale zones of Oromia and in large parts of Somali and North-eastern Afar. The situation may further deteriorate as the lean season progresses. 

  • With some improvement in the security situation across the country, the Government of Ethiopia has begun to facilitate the return of IDP households to their homes in East and West Wolega, Gedio, and Amehra. This has been a smooth transition for IDPs in East and West Wollega zones of Oromia, and North Gonder zone of Amehra. However, Gedio IDPs did not feel secure returning to their homes and returned only at the insistence of the government.  Monthly food assistance rations are being provided to IDPs by CRS (using JEOP resources), WFP, and the government of Ethiopia. This is expected to continue until IDPs are readjusted and able to return fully to their normal livelihoods and incomes.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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