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Presence Country
Key Message Update

Food assistance needs remain high in southeastern pastoral areas

July 2018

July - September 2018

October 2018 - January 2019

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Dollo and Korahe zones in Somali Region are expected to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through January 2019. The number of poor households facing Emergency (IPC Phase 4) outcomes is expected to rise through the end of the dry season in September, but outcomes are likely to start improving with camel milk production in October. Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are projected to persist in eastern Amhara, Tigray, Afar, and southeastern Ethiopia; in many areas, outcomes would be worse in the absence of assistance. Meanwhile, conflict-induced displacement is expected to continue disrupting food and income access among IDPs and drive increased humanitarian assistance needs.

  • Cumulative Kiremt rainfall between June 1 to July 20 was five to 45 percent above average across most western and central areas. This has led to favorable cropping conditions and total Meher production is likely to be average. However, in parts of eastern Amhara and southern Tigray, a nearly 20-day delay in Kiremt rainfall, following a poor performance of the Belg rains in these same areas, is likely to affect Meher production prospects.   

  • In northern pastoral areas of Ethiopia, the Karan/Karma (July to September) rainy season has begun after about a 20-day delay in northern Afar Region. According to remote sensing products, vegetation conditions remain below average, particularly after the previous poor rainy season, but pasture and water availability are expected to improve with the forecasted average rainfall for the rest of the season. As a result, livestock body conditions and productivity are expected to improve.

  • Recurring and new conflict continues to drive significant displacement, negatively affecting household acess to food and income sources from the current Belg and/or Meher seasons, as well as pastoral activities. According to IOM, the largest recent displacement has occurred in Gedeo Zone of SNNPR since June, where over 822,000 people have been internally displaced within the Zone to various IDP camps and host communities. In addition, more than 147,000 people have been  internally displaced in West Guji in Oromia. In these areas, as well as along parts of the Somali and Oromia regional borders, the majority of IDPs are reliant on humanitarian assistance.  

  • According to WFP, as of July 10, food assistance delivery in Somali Region for the first and second rounds of distributions are 78 and 31 percent complete, respectively. Typically at this time of year, food aid delivery for the fourth round is beginning. Given the current pace of food aid delivery, as previous field assessments concluded and distribution reports indicate, WFP beneficiaries are expected to continue to receive half rations on a monthly basis or a full ration once every two months through September.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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