Famine Early Warning Systems Network

The 2018 Season A harvests are nearly complete, with only maize in high altitude areas just starting to be harvested. Subject to confirmation from a forthcoming crop assessment by the Ministry of Agriculture and FAO, total overall crop production is likely to be above normal, particularly due to late season rainfall. As a result of the increased food availability, staple food prices, especially for non-cereals, have fallen since December. According to key informants, the price of the common variety of beans in Kirundo fell by more than 30 percent between early January and November 2017. However, due to the ongoing macroeconomic constraints in Burundi, prices remain high, constraining household purchasing power. In addition, regular fuel shortages, reduced food imports due to a lack of foreign exchange, and limited income-earning opportunities are likely to further hinder food access.

With Season B (February-May) rainfall forecast to only be below average in February, and above average thereafter, the next major harvest in May-June 2018 is likely to be above normal again. However, fertilizers are immediately needed as initial planting gets underway. If there is a further delay in availability and distributions, this may also delay planting efforts, and the total planted area could be below average.

Both IDPs and returnees from Tanzania continue to move back to their original homes in Burundi. UNHCR recently revised higher the number of returnees from Tanzania during the September-December 2017 period to 13,104, nine percent above the initial figure. However, many returnees are unable to utilize their land for planting since others, typically relatives, have been using their land in their absence. As a result, they are still largely dependent on external assistance.

Due to civil unrest in the DRC, particularly in South Kivu Province, approximately 8,000 asylum seekers arrived to Burundi in January and February. The number of Congolese refugees living in Burundi, now exceeds 44,000 people, and they are completely dependent on humanitarian assistance and would face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes without it.

Most poor households in Burundi are expected to face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes through September 2018, as they are projected to meet their minimum food needs but not their essential non-food needs. However, some poor households, especially in areas of Bubanza Province that had below-average Season A harvests, may face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes in April 2018, during the peak of the lean period, due to limited incomes to cover their food gaps. In addition, some former returnees from Tanzania, as they are unable to access land when they arrive in order to plant on time and harvest, and all of the Congolese refugees living in camps are expected to face Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through September 2018 in the absence of assistance.