Key Message Update

Stressed outcomes prevail despite above-average harvests

March 2018

March - May 2018

June - September 2018

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Planting is nearly complete for Season B (February-May), and initial rainfall has generally been favorable. With an above-average rainfall forecast through May, another above-normal harvest is likely even though there were some delays in fertilizer availability at planting. Despite current and projected improved food availability, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to persist countrywide through September primarily due to macroeconomic constraints.

  • The ongoing sheep and goat plague in localized central and northeastern areas caused an undetermined amount of heavy livestock losses before the Government of Burundi closed the small ruminants’ markets as a precautionary measure. In April, at the peak of the lean season, the poor households, who lost goats or are unable to sell, are likely to experience Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes, as they will not have an alternate source of income to meet their minimum food needs.

  • Ahead of the lean season, food staple prices seasonally increased in February but are likely to remain lower than the five-year average. They are expected to start declining in late May with the initial Season B harvest. With limited income-earning opportunities, including for casual labor and livestock in many areas, poor households’ food access remains constrained.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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