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Season C production expected to be above-average

  • Key Message Update
  • Burundi
  • August 2018
Season C production expected to be above-average

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  • Key Messages
  • Key Messages
    • Wetter-than-normal marshlands and an early start to the second rainy season are likely to result in above-average season C production. Households recovering from earlier March – May flooding, particularly in Mutimbuzi and Gihanga communes, and eastern border communities hosting many returnees from Tanzania are likely to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through January. However, the combination of season B household stocks, season C harvest, and forecast of cumulative above-average rainfall for season 2019 A is likely to support None (IPC Phase 1) outcomes for most households beyond January 2019.

    • Staple food prices in July were below July 2017 prices, except for sweet potatoes. However, gasoline and diesel prices increased in August by 4.4 and 6.6 percent, respectively, and are likely to cause food prices to rise more than normal due to higher transportation costs. This is expected to constrain household purchasing power at the peak of the lean season in November. Until then, quasi-normalization of trade with Tanzania, which will help mitigate food price increases, and poor households’ ability to expand normal livelihoods strategies such as crop sales and agricultural labor will moderate the immediate impact.

    • Registered refugees returning from Tanzania, which have averaged 3,600 per month since September 2017, are transported by UNHCR to their areas of origin and typically receive a 3-month food ration from WFP. Many returnees are also accessing family support, and it is likely that most households are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). In contrast, Congolese refugees living in camps, numbering 43,000 as of July, are entirely reliant on humanitarian assistance, which maintained Stressed! (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in August.

    This Key Message Update provides a high-level analysis of current acute food insecurity conditions and any changes to FEWS NET's latest projection of acute food insecurity outcomes in the specified geography. Learn more here.

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