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Remotely Monitored Country
Key Message Update

Season C production expected to be above-average

August 2018

August - September 2018

October 2018 - January 2019

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Wetter-than-normal marshlands and an early start to the second rainy season are likely to result in above-average season C production. Households recovering from earlier March – May flooding, particularly in Mutimbuzi and Gihanga communes, and eastern border communities hosting many returnees from Tanzania are likely to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through January. However, the combination of season B household stocks, season C harvest, and forecast of cumulative above-average rainfall for season 2019 A is likely to support None (IPC Phase 1) outcomes for most households beyond January 2019.

  • Staple food prices in July were below July 2017 prices, except for sweet potatoes. However, gasoline and diesel prices increased in August by 4.4 and 6.6 percent, respectively, and are likely to cause food prices to rise more than normal due to higher transportation costs. This is expected to constrain household purchasing power at the peak of the lean season in November. Until then, quasi-normalization of trade with Tanzania, which will help mitigate food price increases, and poor households’ ability to expand normal livelihoods strategies such as crop sales and agricultural labor will moderate the immediate impact.

  • Registered refugees returning from Tanzania, which have averaged 3,600 per month since September 2017, are transported by UNHCR to their areas of origin and typically receive a 3-month food ration from WFP. Many returnees are also accessing family support, and it is likely that most households are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2). In contrast, Congolese refugees living in camps, numbering 43,000 as of July, are entirely reliant on humanitarian assistance, which maintained Stressed! (IPC Phase 2) outcomes in August.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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