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Food Security Outlook Update December 2025 Influxes of refugees and returning Burundians add pressure amid Stressed conditions Download the report
  • Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are expected to continue in the Northern and Eastern Lowlands and Imbo Plains from December through May 2026. The expected below-average 2026 Season A harvest will prolong households’ market dependence for food amid elevated prices and reduced income. Border closures with the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Rwanda are limiting cross-border trade and labor opportunities in the west and north. Increased pressure on limited food and income sources — caused by the presence of refugees in the west and returnees in the east — is expected to sustain below-average income and food access in these regions. Staple food prices have stabilized, providing some relief from the rapid inflation and volatility in 2024 and early 2025, but generally remain above the five-year average, driven by high input and transport costs, and are expected to remain elevated through May, driven by the below-average Season A harvest.
  • Conflict escalation in December 2025 in eastern DRC led to the displacement of about 90,000 Congolese refugees and 10,000 Burundian returnees into Burundi. Despite the opening of a new camp in Busuma, many remain in transit centers or with host communities in the Imbo Plains.
  • The Tanzanian government’s announcement of the closure of Nduta and Nyarugusu refugee camps in Tanzania by May 2026 is expected to drive approximately 93,000 Burundian refugees currently in Tanzania to return to Burundi by May. Most are expected to resettle in eastern Burundi, particularly in the Eastern Lowlands livelihood zone.

  • In November, WFP provided food and cash assistance to approximately 76,000 refugees and asylum seekers, though rations were reduced to 75 percent of daily kilocalorie needs due to funding shortages. Food assistance needs are expected to rise in early 2026, amid limited humanitarian resources, driven by the influx of nearly 90,000 new refugees from the DRC in December 2025, the anticipated return of 93,000 Burundian refugees, and rising needs among poor households in the Northern and Eastern Lowlands livelihood zones due to the poor 2026 Season A harvest. 

    This report provides an update to the October 2025 to May 2026 Food Security Outlook and November 2025 Key Message Update. The analysis is based on information available as of December 28, 2025.  

 Read the full analysis Mise à jour sur la sécurité alimentaire Décembre 2025 Afflux de réfugiés et de rapatriés burundais accentue la pression dans un contexte de stress alimentaire Download the report
  • Des résultats de Stress Alimentaire (Phase 2 de l'IPC) devraient se poursuivre dans les zones des Dépressions du Nord, de l’Est et de la Plaine de l’Imbo de décembre à mai 2026. La récolte attendue en dessous de la moyenne de la Saison 2026 A prolongera la dépendance des ménages au marché pour l’accès à la nourriture, dans un contexte de prix élevés et de revenus réduits. La fermeture des frontières avec la République Démocratique du Congo (RDC) et le Rwanda continue de limiter les opportunités de commerce et de travail transfrontaliers dans l’ouest et le nord. La pression accrue sur les ressources alimentaires et les moyens de subsistance — causée par la présence de réfugiés à l’ouest et de rapatriés à l’est — devrait maintenir un accès à la nourriture et aux revenus en dessous de la moyenne dans ces régions. Les prix des denrées de base se sont stabilisés, offrant un certain répit par rapport à l’inflation rapide et à la volatilité observées en 2024 et au début de 2025, mais restent globalement supérieurs à la moyenne quinquennale, en raison des coûts élevés des intrants et du transport. Ils devraient rester élevés jusqu’en mai, en lien avec les faibles récoltes attendues de la Saison A. 

  • L'escalade du conflit en décembre 2025 dans l'est de la RDC a entraîné le déplacement d’environ 90 000 réfugiés congolais et 10 000 rapatriés burundais vers le Burundi. Malgré l’ouverture d’un nouveau camp à Busuma, beaucoup restent dans des centres de transit ou sont hébergés par des communautés hôtes dans la Plaine de l’Imbo.   

  • L’annonce par le gouvernement tanzanien de la fermeture des camps de réfugiés de Nduta et Nyarugusu d’ici mai 2026 devrait entraîner le retour d’environ 93 000 réfugiés burundais actuellement en Tanzanie. La majorité devrait se réinstaller dans l’est du Burundi, notamment dans la zone de moyens d’existence des Dépressions de l’Est. 

  • En novembre, le PAM a fourni une aide alimentaire et monétaire à environ 76 000 réfugiés et demandeurs d’asile, bien que les rations aient été réduites à 75 pour cent des besoins caloriques journaliers en raison de contraintes de financement. Les besoins en aide alimentaire devraient augmenter début 2026, dans un contexte de ressources humanitaires limitées, en raison de l’afflux d’environ 90 000 nouveaux réfugiés en provenance de la RDC en décembre 2025, du retour prévu de 93 000 réfugiés burundais et de l’augmentation des besoins parmi les ménages pauvres dans les zones de moyens d’existence des Dépressions du Nord et de l’Est, en raison de la mauvaise récolte de la saison 2026 A. 


    Ce rapport fournit une mise à jour des perspectives sur la sécurité alimentaire d’octobre 2025 à mai 2026 et des messages clés de novembre 2025. L’analyse est basée sur les informations disponibles au 28 décembre 2025.  

 Read the full analysis
More analysis View all Burundi analysis Food security
Key Message Update Burundi November 2025
Food Security Outlook Burundi October 2025 - May 2026
Key Message Update Burundi September 2025
Agroclimatology
Global Weather Hazards Global January 15, 2026 - January 21, 2026
Global Weather Hazards Global January 8, 2026 - January 14, 2026
Global Weather Hazards Global January 1, 2026 - January 7, 2026
Markets & trade
Price Watch Global December 30, 2025
Price Watch Global November 30, 2025
Price Watch Global October 31, 2025
Alerts / Special Reports
Special Report Global June 23, 2025
Special Report Global May 1, 2025
Alert East Africa June 4, 2014
Food security
Key Message Update Burundi November 2025
Food Security Outlook Burundi October 2025 - May 2026
Key Message Update Burundi September 2025
Agroclimatology
Global Weather Hazards Global January 15, 2026 - January 21, 2026
Global Weather Hazards Global January 8, 2026 - January 14, 2026
Global Weather Hazards Global January 1, 2026 - January 7, 2026
Markets & trade
Price Watch Global December 30, 2025
Price Watch Global November 30, 2025
Price Watch Global October 31, 2025
Alerts / Special Reports
Special Report Global June 23, 2025
Special Report Global May 1, 2025
Alert East Africa June 4, 2014
Food Security Classification data View all Burundi Food Security Classification data
Burundi Acute Food Insecurity Classification

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (December 2025 - January 2026) and medium term (February 2026 - May 2026) periods.

 Burundi Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile December 2025 (.zip) Burundi Acute Food Insecurity Classification December 2025 (.geojson) Near Term Projection: December 2025 - January 2026 (.png) Medium Term Projection: February 2026 - May 2026 (.png) Near Term Projection: December 2025 - January 2026 (.kml) Medium Term Projection: February 2026 - May 2026 (.kml) Burundi Acute Food Insecurity Classification

Forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (November 2025 - January 2026) and medium term (February 2026 - May 2026) periods.

 Burundi Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile November 2025 (.zip) Burundi Acute Food Insecurity Classification November 2025 (.geojson) Near Term Projection: November 2025 - January 2026 (.png) Medium Term Projection: February 2026 - May 2026 (.png) Near Term Projection: November 2025 - January 2026 (.kml) Medium Term Projection: February 2026 - May 2026 (.kml) Burundi Acute Food Insecurity Classification

Current (October 2025) food security outcomes and forward-looking analysis representing the most likely food security outcomes for the near term (October 2025 - January 2026) and medium term (February 2026 - May 2026) periods.

 Burundi Acute Food Insecurity Classification Shapefile October 2025 (.zip) Burundi Acute Food Insecurity Classification October 2025 (.geojson) Current Situation: October 2025 (.png) Near Term Projection: October 2025 - January 2026 (.png) Medium Term Projection: February 2026 - May 2026 (.png) Current Situation: October 2025 (.kml) Near Term Projection: October 2025 - January 2026 (.kml) Medium Term Projection: February 2026 - May 2026 (.kml)
Seasonal Calendar

The Seasonal Calendar shows the annual and cyclical patterns of key food and income sources in a country throughout the typical year.
Agricultural seasonal calendar showing land preparation, planting, weeding, harvesting, coffee harvest, and labor activities across seasons.
Production & Trade Flow Maps
FEWS NET captures the market networks for a product in a given country or region, including their catchments and trade flow patterns.
Maize, Normal Year Banana, Normal Year Beans, Normal Year Cassava, Normal Year Rice, Normal Year Sweet Potatoes, Normal Year
Satellite-derived products map

USGS-provided data and imagery supports FEWS NET's monitoring efforts of weather and climate throughout the world.

View all satellite-derived products
Livelihood Zone resources Burundi Livelihood Zone Descriptions, February 2021 Burundi Livelihood Zone Descriptions, November 2009 Burundi Livelihood Zone Map
Burundi 2009 Livelihood Zones Map (.PNG)
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