Remote Monitoring Report

Remittances continue to decrease alongside depreciation of the Tajikistani somoni

January 2016
2015-Q4-1-1-TJ-en

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Remittances to Tajikistan continue to decline due to fewer labor opportunities and labor migration restrictions in the Russian Federation, as well as the depreciation of both the Russian ruble and Tajikistani somoni against the US dollar. Between January and September 2015, remittance levels were 65 percent lower than levels during the same time period in 2014. Many poor households who are highly dependent on remittances to purchase food are likely to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through at least the January to March lean season.  

  • The Tajikistani somoni continues to depreciate against major international currencies. As of mid-January, the value of the somoni against the US dollar was 26 percent lower than at this time last year. The lower value of the currency has both reduced household real income and increased the price of imported food items such as wheat flour, ultimately reducing the purchasing capacity of many households. 

  • Average precipitation and above-average temperatures are predicted for the ongoing wet season through May 2016 and are expected to facilitate normal development of winter and spring crops, including wheat and cotton. As a result of the likely average snow accumulation, the risk of flooding during the spring is expected to be average. 

About Remote Monitoring

In remote monitoring, a coordinator typically works from a nearby regional office. Relying on partners for data, the coordinator uses scenario development to conduct analysis and produce monthly reports. As less data may be available, remote monitoring reports may have less detail than those from countries with FEWS NET offices. Learn more about our work here.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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