Key Message Update

Households begin land preparation activities for winter wheat and stocking foods for lean season

September 2019

September 2019

October 2019 - January 2020

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Insecurity and conflict increased in August and September in many areas of the country, with the highest increases in the south, northeast, and north regions, resulting in displacement of an estimated 44,000 people. Many of the newly displaced households are likely in Crisis (IPC Phase 3), as they have lost their normal food and incomes sources and have difficulty accessing their normal livelihoods. The rest of the country is experiencing Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes as a result of the wheat harvest and ongoing second season harvests.

  • International forecasts indicate the 2019/20 precipitation season is most likely to be average across Afghanistan. Temperatures compared to the short-term mean are expected to be near average throughout most of the country through February 2020. This will likely support the development of snowpack, which will benefit irrigated agriculture starting in Spring 2020.

  • Most households are stocking food for winter, and farmers are preparing fields for winter wheat. In areas where conflict is periodic, some temporarily-displaced households are likely to return to their homes to plant winter wheat. However, in other areas that experience more frequent conflict, some farmers are facing difficulty accessing their land. Despite the increase in conflict in recent months, area planted for winter wheat is likely to be average to above average, as a result of the favorable climate conditions and that more households engaging in agriculture activities as this is becoming a favored income source.

  • August staple food prices were similar to last year’s prices and the five-year average. According to WFP data, one sheep could buy nearly 265 kg of wheat on average across monitored markets. This is a 5 percent increase in the terms of trade from July to August, mainly due to the increase in the price of sheep. The highest increases in sheep prices were observed in Mazar, Maimana, Hirat, and Faizabad markets due to the Eid-holiday.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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