Key Message Update

Nearly 300,000 Afghanistan nationals repatriated from Pakistan in 2016; further repatriation likely

September 2016

September 2016

Afghanistan September 2016 Food Security Projections for September

October 2016 - January 2017

Afghanistan September 2016 Food Security Projections for October to January

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Insecurity and conflict have intensified in recent years, including the internal displacement of an estimated 272,000 people in 2016 through September, with households in 30 of 34 provinces affected. Many of the newly displaced who have lost key sources of income are likely to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) in the absence of assistance. External assistance will be necessary throughout the upcoming winter to mitigate food consumption gaps, as employment opportunities are at a seasonal low. 

  • Nearly 300,000 Afghanistan nationals have been repatriated from Pakistan in 2016, mostly since July. Approximately half of the returnees were undocumented refugees, who are migrating to Afghanistan primarily due to increasing pressure from the Pakistani government. A similar number of documented refugees have returned, largely due to the Pakistani government’s claim that it will repeal their legal right to work and own property in the country by the end of 2016. 

  • Many of the returnees have been living in Pakistan since as early as the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979, and will have very limited means to establish sufficient livelihoods in the short-term. An estimated 1.6 million documented Afghan refugees were living in Pakistan prior to the recent wave of repatriation, along with additional undocumented Afghanistan nationals. Further repatriation is anticipated in the coming months.

  • August 2016 wheat flour prices were largely stable in markets monitored compared to last year, but were moderately above the five-year average in several markets. The greatest increases above the five-year average were observed in Faizabad (10.7 percent) and Nili (9.8 percent). Prices were also moderately above average in Jalalabad (8.5 percent), Kabul (6.2 percent), Kandahar (7.6 percent), and Mazar-i-Sharif (5.5 percent), but below average in Hirat (-11.1 percent) and Maimana (-6.2 percent).

  • There is a risk that area planted for winter wheat will be reduced as compared to recent years due to ongoing insecurity disrupting land preparation in some areas, and due to the increased likelihood of below-average rainfall during the beginning of the wet season, associated with below-average sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the eastern equatorial Pacific. However, there remains a significant spread of possibilities for early season performance due to weather variability in the region.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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