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Presence Country
Key Message Update

Below-average staple production and limited availability of livestock products are contributing to worse outcomes compared to recent years

May 2018

May 2018

June - September 2018

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Aggregate wheat production in 2018 is expected to be less than last year and the five-year average, due primarily to below-average 2017/2018 precipitation in most areas, including drought conditions in much of the north. Initial reports indicate that approximately 60 to 70 percent of rainfed wheat production areas have suffered damages due to dryness, while general conditions for irrigated wheat are worse than last year due to limited availability of irrigation water in some areas, pests, diseases, and erratic distribution of rainfall near the end of the season.

  • Normal imports of wheat flour from Kazakhstan and Pakistan are expected to continue, supporting market availability and seasonally typical prices despite reduced domestic production. However, many poor households who are heavily dependent on own rainfed production and/or on labor opportunities in rainfed areas will have lower capacity to make needed market purchases during the coming months, and are likely to face food consumption gaps later on during the lean season in the absence of humanitarian assistance.

  • Food security outcomes in the agropastoral areas are worse than is typical during the spring and summer months. Livestock productivity and body conditions are below normal levels in many areas due to very poor rangeland conditions, leading to low income from livestock sales and limited household availability of livestock products. Most rangeland areas have received well below average rainfall amounts, except for localized parts of western, southwestern, and southeastern provinces.

  • Many poor households impacted by drought conditions and/or conflict, and many non-documented returnees and internally displaced people whose livelihoods have been negatively impacted by either natural disasters or conflict are likely to remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) prior to harvests of wheat and other staple crops, as well as cash crops including orchard crops. Households facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are present throughout the provinces of the country.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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