Key Message Update

Near-average wheat harvest improving households access to own foods

July 2019

July - September 2019

October 2019 - January 2020

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected to be widespread as a result of the harvest and many households access own foods. However, areas of Badghis where many households are still recovering from the drought, undocumented returnees, and displaced households are expected to continue to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). As winter starts in October/November across much of the country, Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes are most likely to emerge as many households are expected to rely on markets with below average incomes.

  • Conflict and insecurity remain widespread in 2019, although the number of events is lower than the same time last year. However, conflict continues to threaten lives and disrupts livelihoods with over 34,000 people displaced through July in 2019 and nearly 2,000 displaced in July. In addition, returnees from Pakistan and Iran, specifically undocumented returnees have limited options for re-establishing livelihoods and participating in the ongoing agriculture season. Many undocumented returnees and IDPs, have few assets and are highly dependent on the limited assistance from communities and humanitarian agencies.

  • Due to the favorable weather conditions, fruit and melon production is expected to be above average. In addition, pasture conditions are above average favoring the regeneration of livestock body conditions and dairy production. Many poor households are selling own production and livestock products on the markets for income, however prices for these goods continue to be below average. Livestock prices are expected to increase for a short period of time in August.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

USAID logoUSGS logoUSDA logo
NASA logoNOAA logoKimetrica logoChemonics logo