Key Message Update

Conflict-affected households and returnees are in need of assistance

July 2016

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Insecurity and conflict, which have intensified in recent years and have remained widespread in 2016, continue to threaten lives and livelihoods of civilians and cause new displacement. Many displaced households have lost normal sources of food and income and are in need of humanitarian assistance. Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are likely for recently displaced households through at least January 2017.

  • In the central highlands and particularly in Bamyan Province, area planted with potato during the 2015/2016 season is reported to have decreased compared to the previous year, and reduced harvests are expected. However, with the below-normal harvests and remittances, most households are likely to be able to stock sufficient food for winter and spring.

  • The elevated probability for the development of La Niña conditions during the coming months increases the risk for below-average precipitation in Afghanistan during the upcoming October to May wet season. Although the most likely seasonal outcome is below-average precipitation, there remains a significant spread of possibilities for seasonal accumulation due to weather variability in Afghanistan.

  • Relatively stable wheat prices and increased income from livestock sales, along with harvests of wheat, potatoes, fruits, and other crops, are expected to help reduce the number of people facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3) prior to the onset of winter. However, continued displacement due to conflict and related restrictions on livelihood activities will drive Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes among displaced and other conflict-affected households.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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