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Presence Country
Key Message Update

The 2018 drought, conflict, and below-average remittances are driving atypically high lean season needs

January 2019

January 2019

February - May 2019

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Following the 2018 drought, an estimated 287,000 people were displaced mainly in northwestern and western Afghanistan with over 364,000 people displaced by conflict in 2018, per UNOCHA. Displaced households have lost their livelihoods. This coupled with weakening of casual labor markets and below-average remittances from Iran and Pakistan, IDPs are most likely to continue to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through May. They are unable to meet their basic non-food and employing crisis level coping strategies to meet their basic food needs.

  • Humanitarian food assistance is preventing more severe outcomes and as a result Badghis and areas of Badakhshan are facing Crisis (IPC Phase 3!) and parts of Ghor and Bamyan are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2!). However, areas of Daykundi and the Wakhan Corridor continue to experience Emergency (IPC Phase 4) with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) and Stressed (IPC Phase 2) outcomes across the rest of the country. The harvest starting in April will improve food access and incomes, however with displacement and reduced non-agricultural labor opportunities, Stressed (IPC Phase 2) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3) outcomes are anticipated. 

  • Below-average precipitation marked the start of the 2018/19 wet season across the country except in northern and eastern regions. Households delayed planting in many areas, and in some areas, rain-fed winter wheat was not planted due to soil moisture deficits carried over from the 2018 drought. However, a substantial increase in precipitation throughout most of the country in January has increased snowpack in all monitored basins. Water from snowmelt is likely to be sufficient for irrigated wheat production in all major production areas.

  • Agriculture labor opportunities are above 2017 levels, although remain below average. However, the average labor wage decreased compared to last year. Non-agriculture labor opportunities remain below-average. The reduction in non-agriculture labor and labor wages is limiting household incomes. This is increasing household dependence on credit purchase as they are reducing the quantity and frequency of meals. Agriculture labor opportunities will most likely increase with the harvest, increasing household incomes.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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