Key Message Update

Irregular rainfall still affecting the region’s staple production

October 2018

September 2018

Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador and part of Guatemala are in phase 2.

October 2018 - January 2019

Nicaragua, Honduras, El Salvador and part of Guatemala are in phase 2.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • In Guatemala, Honduras, El Salvador and Nicaragua, the extended dry spell affected the Primera staple grains harvests, mainly for subsistence farmers located in the Dry Corridor. Precipitation forecast for the remainder of the rainy season – until November – indicates average to below-average rains ending earlier than usual which could damage Postrera crops, especially in the Pacific zone.

  • Maize and bean market supply is assured by the current Primera harvest, carried over stocks from last year and imports. Maize prices have increased atypically since June to above-average levels, mainly due to the drought-driven speculation in the markets while bean prices remained stable or decreased to below-average levels.

  • In the Dry Corridor in Central America, during the peak season of casual labor demand, households affected by the extended dry spell will be able to cover the minimal calorie intake requirements and will be classified in Stress (IPC, Phase 2), until at least January 2019. However, certain households may face Crisis (IPC, Phase 3) outcomes without changing the area classification. The number of households in Crisis (IPC, Phase 3) will increase through the lean season.

  • In Haiti, important cumulative rainfall during the end of August and early September allowed land preparation and sowing activities for the Summer campaign, as well as the development of staple crops (maize, beans, tubers).

  • In Haiti from October 2018 until January 2019, some areas will remain in Stressed (IPC, Phase 2), while other in Minimal (IPC, Phase 1) food insecurity. However, some households affected by the dryness (in Nord and Nord-Est) that have not yet recovered from past shocks could be classified in Crisis (IPC, Phase 3), but their number is not enough to change the classification of the area. 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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