Key Message Update

Average Postrera harvests are expected due to damage from excess rainfall

November 2017

November 2017 - January 2018

February - May 2018

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Postrera production levels are expected to be average. Heavy rainfall was from mid-September to late October caused flooding in areas in countries across the region. The flooding could have affected planting for the Postrera season. Areas where seasonal crops are likely to be most affected by the heavy rains includes those located near valleys, creeks, and low basins of the rivers and plains.

  • Forecasts indicate normal or above-normal rainfall in the Atlantic basin until December. Continued high rainfall could cause crop damage during the late Postrera from January to March. High moisture levels during this period could increase the spread of pests and fungal diseases, especially in bean crops.

  • Across the region, seasonal employment in coffee and sugar cane cutting has officially began. As a result, increased labor opportunities for poor households in the dry corridor is expected to improve cash flow and allow households to cover their basic food and livelihood needs. Minimal (IPC Phase 1) outcomes are expected in these areas.

  • However, the poorest households in the dry corridor that have experienced consecutive years of below-average production due to crop damage have not fully recovered their livelihoods. Many of the same households obtained low yields for their Primera crops and losses due to the ongoing high moisture levels. As a result, the poorest households in some areas are expected to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) during the outlook period, particularly in southern and western Honduras, eastern and western El Salvador, as well as north-pacific and north-central parts of Nicaragua.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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