Key Message Update

Normal levels of income generating opportunities are expected to facilitate food purchases

March 2018

March - May 2018

June - September 2018

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The forecast for the Primera season indicates a normal start of rainfall across the region. There is also a likelihood of early rainfall in regions of the Pacific, mainly El Salvador, which would facilitate soil preparation for planting in the region.

  • Coffee organizations in the region are expecting higher production levels than last season, including an estimated increase from 9.4 million to 10.5 million bags of 1 quintal in Honduras, an increase from 835,000 to 1.03 million in El Salvador, and from 2.5 million to 2.6 million in Nicaragua. However, these estimates are still pending final verification post-harvest because harvests may have been impacted by intense rains, below-normal temperatures, and winds.

  • At this this time of the year, households in more isolated areas and on marginal land have typically depleted their food reserves. However, normal levels of agricultural labor and stable grain prices are currently facilitating normal access to food and this is expected to continue until September 2018.

  • Populations affected by low production and consecutive years of rainfall anomalies are Stressed (IPC Phase 2), however because the estimated population does not meet the threshold to define an area of analysis, national levels of food insecurity remain Minimal (IPC Phase 1) during the current analysis period.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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