Key Message Update

Improved coffee harvests expected to increase labor opportunities

January 2018

January 2018

February - May 2018

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Coffee production in the region has recovered, reaching production volumes that are higher than the 2016/17 season across all countries. More job opportunities are also expected as a result of increased production. Nonetheless, coffee prices in the international market still remain depressed. According to the Composite Index of the International Coffee Organization, the average in December 2017 was USD $1.14 per pound, which corresponds to the lowest level since February 2016.

  • In general, national post-harvest grain crops are at normal levels, making it possible for the majority of the poorest households in the region to generate reserves to cover their basic food needs for the first half of 2018.

  • Despite good results in the first and post-season production, there was damage to mainly bean crops due to the excess rainfall in some areas, so there is still some uncertainty and countries have not made any officially production announcements. In Honduras and Nicaragua, prices are still following normal seasonal trends.

  • According to weather forecasts for January to March, rainfall is likely to be higher than the historical average in Honduras and Nicaragua. During this period the planting and harvest of the Apante/Postrera season is typically carried out. Based on the forecast, conditions will support good vegetative development for the season, increasing the likelihood of good grain supplies in markets across the region.

  • The situation and political uncertainty that prevails in Honduras may hinder transportation and could alter the supply of basic food in deficit regions of the country, destabilizing prices. This situation could also influence trade with El Salvador, Nicaragua, and Guatemala.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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