Key Message Update

Crop losses due to erratic rainfall will result in an early start of the lean season.

February 2019

January 2019

Most of the region in phases 1 and 2, except for dry corridor in Guatemala and certain areas in Haiti in phase 3.

February - May 2019

Most of the region in phases 1 and 2, except for dry corridor in Guatemala and certain areas in Haiti in phase 3.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Forecasted El Niño conditions could lead to rainfall irregularities during the March-April season, impacting the start of the Primera harvest and below-average rainfall in certain areas of Honduras and Nicaragua for the Apante season. In Haiti, rainfall conditions were sufficient for the crops except in drought affected areas, in Nord and Nord-Est. 

  • Losses in the dry corridor caused by the drought during the Primera harvest and the damages in the Postrera production due to excess of rainfall did not allow subsistence farmers’ households to ensure food stocks, resulting in an early start of lean season (March instead of May). Some poor households have depended on the market since September for the purchase of their staple foods.

  • In Central America, the main sources of temporary labor are expected to be normal during November – March, those sources are the production of tropical fruit, sugarcane, shrimp and mainly coffee harvest. In Haiti, local demand for agricultural labor is low, however, other sources of income such as temporary migration to the Dominican Republic, charcoal sales, petty trading, are available alternatives for poorest households.

  • In Central America, maize and bean market supplies are near average, supported by the Postrera harvest, stocks, and imports. Maize prices were above-average and stable in December while bean prices were below average to average. In Nicaragua, political tension continued to affect markets, pressuring maize prices. In Haiti, local maize prices increased while local black bean prices fell and imported rice prices were stable but above average.

  • The poorest households in the Dry corridor who lost their crops during the prolonged seasonal dry spell, whose main income comes from coffee, are in Stress (IPC, Phase 2). Households that have exhausted their food stocks and apply coping strategies are facing Crisis (IPC, Phase 3) outcomes. In Haiti, most regions are in Stress (IPC phase 2), while some areas affected by the drought are in Crisis (IPC phase 3).

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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