Supply and Market Outlook

Supply and Market Outlook

September 2019

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Total projected cereal production (maize, rice and sorghum) for 2019/2020 is expected to decrease by almost 12.3 percent compared to 2018/2019 but will exceed the five-year average by about 8 percent. Observed losses for 2019/2020 are significantly lower than those recorded between 2014/2015 and 2017/2018. Maize and rice will experience the most significant reduction in production levels. Overall decline in cereal production is due to the negative impact of a poor spring season harvest on subsequent summer and fall growing seasons.

  • Total cereal supply (production + net imports), i.e. 1,400,000 metric tons (MT), is expected to decrease year on year due to the combined negative effect of reduced local cereal production and increased cereal imports (excluding maize), as the effect of reduced production on supply is greater than the effect of increased cereal imports on supply. However, cereal supply is expected to be almost 4 percent above the five-year average. Imported cereals, particularly rice and wheat, will continue to dominate in the national cereal market.

  • A cereal production deficit of more than 42,000 MT will be observed during the 2019/2020 marketing year, although, compared to the five-year average, a surplus of more than 73,000 MT is expected. The Gonaïves (Artibonite) market will maintain its surplus producing status for the three commodities, even with the expected decline in overall cereal production. Other regions will have to rely on imports, particularly for rice, to cover cereal deficit.

  • Cereal prices are expected to maintain their upward trajectory throughout the outlook period. They will also remain atypically high compared to the five-year average due to exchange rate depreciation, the decline in production and the possible withdrawal of fuel subsidies. Furthermore, civil insecurity, fueled by socio-political instability, will increase the risk of riots, which could jeopardize market functioning for staple foods throughout the country, particularly in the metropolitan Port-au-Prince area.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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