Supply and Market Outlook

Supply and Market Outlook

October 2018

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The 2018/2019 cereal production (rice, maize and sorghum) estimates for Haiti point toward an increase that is marginally above the 5-year average. This slight rebound will be due to increased production of sorghum and rice, primarily in the Artibonite region, which supplies about 89 percent of annual production. 

  • Total cereal supply (production and net import) is expected to fall relative to the previous marketing year levels owing to lower rice and maize imports. Market supply for imported cereals, particularly for rice, will nonetheless remain adequate as this decline is less significant relative to five year average levels.

  • Local markets will therefore be well supplied. The cereal deficit will be low compared to the average. The Gonaïves market in Artibonite will have a substantial food surplus due to an increase in rice and sorghum production.Other regions within the country will have to import cereals to cover their cereal needs.

  • Imported rice prices are expected to remain stable, with slight fluctuations between November 2018 and May 2019. Imported rice prices will remain above the five year average levels partly owing to currency depreciation. Local rice (TCS 10) prices will ease through November 2018, after which they will begin to increase again. While local rice (TCS 10)  prices are not expected to reach the levels observed in July and August 2018, they will remain significantly above the 5-year average.

  • The uncertainty fueled by tensions within the PetroCaribe alliance will continue to weaken socio-political stability and increase the risk of riots, which could jeopardize the stability of staple food markets.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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