Key Message Update

Households in the Dry Corridor are experiencing a partial improvement in food security outcomes

November 2016

November 2016 - January 2017

Guatemala November 2016 Food Security Projections for November to January

February - May 2017

Guatemala November 2016 Food Security Projections for February to May

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Postrera harvests have begun, with reports indicating lower yields for beans in low elevation areas of the eastern part of the Dry Corridor due to irregular distribution and low accumulation of rainfall in October, as well as high temperatures. Nevertheless, prices in major markets are expected to seasonally decline in December, with the increase in supply of staples from the harvests. The staple harvest in the Western Highlands, expected in December, is likely to be near average, with the exception of the more arid parts of the region, where some losses due to low precipitation have been reported.

  • Seasonal forecasts indicate favorable conditions for staple production in the Northern Transversal Strip and southern Petén, which will ensure seasonally normal price behavior during the beginning of 2017. The cold front season is expected to be normal, with no atypical impact on agricultural production.

  • An increase in the availability of labor in the coffee sector during the ongoing harvest season through February/March is expected, along with greater incomes for laborers in the sector. This is due to improved production conditions and an increase in international coffee prices. According to the composite index of the International Coffee Organization (ICO), October coffee prices averaged USD 1.42/pound, 21 percent above the price of the same month last year, but still below price levels during the 2014/2015 season.

  • In the Dry Corridor of the Western Highlands, poor households will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through January 2017. For the months from February through May 2017, as labor availability and household reserves decline seasonally, poor households will experience a deterioration in food security outcomes, with a progressive increase in the number of households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) during the period through May, which will likely continue until the harvests of maize and beans in November/December 2017.

  • In the Eastern Dry Corridor, poor households will experience an improvement in availability and access to food at least through January 2017, and will be Stressed (IPC Phase 2), with some households in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Nevertheless, due to the consecutive shocks in recent years of drought and low income, the exhaustion of household reserves in staple producing households beginning in February 2017, and a seasonal decline in labor opportunities, poor households will likely fall back to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) at least through May 2017. 

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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