Key Message Update

Low stocks, high prices and reduced sources of income limit food security

November 2018

November 2018 - January 2019

Los tres países se encuentran en fase 2 (estrés)

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • Next quarter, irregularities in the temporal and spatial distribution of the rains are expected, with average to below-average rainfall in the Caribbean region of Central America. These conditions could affect the Apante agricultural season.

  • In addition to Primera grain losses for subsistence farmers due to the effects of the extensive dry spell, excessive rainfall during September and October affected the Postrera crops, which suffered from fungal diseases during vegetative development and during the drying of crops.

  • At present and through the coming months, the main income opportunities will come from the seasonal harvest of tropical fruit, sugarcane, shrimp (though it could be affected by high rainfall levels), and coffee (though gains are limited due to low international coffee prices).

  • Between October and September, regional maize prices followed a downward seasonal trend, but appear to be above the average. Bean prices stabilized in recent months with the exception of Honduras, which saw a 13% increase in prices. Despite this, bean prices in Honduras remained average to below average. Bean prices in El Salvador remained average to below average, and in Nicaragua they were above average.

  • The majority of vulnerable households—principally in the south and west of Honduras, in the east and west of El Salvador, and in the center and north of Nicaragua—will encounter food insecurity–with unemployment, no food reserves, Primera harvest losses and damages to the Postrera harvest—and are classified in Stress (IPC, Phase 2) from November 2018 to January 2019.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 34 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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