Key Message Update

Primera and Postrera crops losses, price increase and limited sources of employment exacerbate food insecurity.

October 2018

October 2018 - January 2019

Los tres países se encuentran en fase 2 (estrés)

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC 2.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • The subsistence farmers of the region were affected by irregular and deficit rains during the Primera agricultural campaign and, the pattern of irregular rains continues for the Postrera harvest period with a deficit in the central zone of Nicaragua, Honduras and Guatemala, which could affect the yield of the Postrera harvest.

  • Subsistence farmers and casual workers in the region have exhausted their food and economic reserves. During the next months, their income will come from the Postrera harvests in the unaffected areas, as well as from the cutting of the coffee in the mountain ranges. The latter being affected by low international coffee prices, the corresponding income will decrease, affecting food security.

  • The inter-monthly prices (September - August) of grains register varied behaviors; bean shows stability and decreases up to 6% less, however, in comparison with last year the current ones are up to 27% higher in Nicaragua. Maize records inter-monthly increases only in Nicaragua; however, in the comparison with last year, they are substantially higher in the three countries, with increases of 56% in Honduras, 79% in El Salvador and 150% in Nicaragua.

  • Most vulnerable households, mainly in the south and west of Honduras, in eastern and western El Salvador, as well as central and northern Nicaragua, which have no food reserves or employment, with crop losses during Primera and at risk of losing the Postrera crop, will face Stressed (IPC, Phase 2) food insecurity outcomes from November 2018 to January 2019.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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