Key Message Update

Vulnerable households in Central America progressively enter the lean season

March 2019

March - May 2019

Los tres países se encuentran en fase 2 (estrés)

June - September 2019

Los tres países se encuentran en fase 2 (estrés)

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Would likely be at least one phase worse without current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET classification is IPC-compatible. IPC-compatible analysis follows key IPC protocols but does not necessarily reflect the consensus of national food security partners.
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

IPC v3.0 Acute Food Insecurity Phase

Presence countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3: Crisis
4: Emergency
5: Famine
Remote monitoring
countries:
1: Minimal
2: Stressed
3+: Crisis or higher
Would likely be at least one phase worse without
current or programmed humanitarian assistance
FEWS NET Remote Monitoring countries use a colored outline to represent the highest IPC classification in areas of concern.

Key Messages

  • As of March 2019, the poorest households in vulnerable communities are facing Stress (IPC, Phase 2) food security outcomes, due to deterioration in their livelihoods, recurrent crop losses, low income possibilities and price rises in basic products; however, the poorest households in isolated communities could find themselves in acute food insecurity in Crisis (Phase 3, CIF), estimating that Honduras has the largest vulnerable population.

  • Since mid-February weak El Niño conditions have been observed, which according to the March forecast will last until the end of fall 2019, causing irregularities in the rains and affecting the two sowing periods (Primera and Postrera).

  • At this time there is generally a seasonal increase in grain prices, however, they have remained stable this year, although higher than last year (20 - 70%), which is attributed to the harvest losses of the last season, which, added to the forecasts of irregularities of rain for the next season propitiates the commercial speculation.

  • Temperatures above average are observed and in some regions there have been rivers without flow, a situation that would be extended to other regions until the beginning of the rainy season, with the corresponding complications for access to water for human consumption, agricultural production and particularly for cattle.The price of coffee in February according to the International Coffee Organization was quoted at 100.67 cents per pound, which is equivalent to -13% compared to February 2018 and -28% compared to the average of five years. The sustained decline in prices harms coffee farmers, which reduces the opportunities and income of families in the poorest regions of the countries, who migrate temporarily (October to March), affecting their purchasing power.

  • The price of coffee in February according to the International Coffee Organization was quoted at 100.67 cents per pound, which is equivalent to -13% compared to February 2018 and -28% compared to the average of five years. The sustained decline in prices harms coffee farmers, which reduces the opportunities and income of families in the poorest regions of the countries, who migrate temporarily (October to March), affecting their purchasing power.

About FEWS NET

The Famine Early Warning Systems Network is a leading provider of early warning and analysis on food insecurity. Created by USAID in 1985 to help decision-makers plan for humanitarian crises, FEWS NET provides evidence-based analysis on some 28 countries. Implementing team members include NASA, NOAA, USDA, and USGS, along with Chemonics International Inc. and Kimetrica. Read more about our work.

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